OPEC News Updates

Output collapsed by 7.88 million barrels a day to 20.79 million a day in March, driven by losses in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

Key producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to increase targets for May by about 206,000 barrels a day.

“It’s the rockets and feathers effect,” said Christopher Knittel, professor of energy economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “When things are going up — they go up fast.”

Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed Jan. 4 to keep production levels steady through the end of March, ratifying a decision made in November to suspend last year’s sequence of increases.

Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will hold a monthly video conference Jan. 4, and review a decision to halt further supply hikes in Q1 after rapidly reviving production earlier this year.

OPEC+ also approved a mechanism for its review of members’ individual production capacities, a sensitive process that will help set quotas in 2027. 

Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies will likely grow output 4.7% in 2026. The increases appear designed to capitalize on an expected oil price upturn in the latter half of 2026.

The change, which has not been confirmed by the Indian government, would boost Trump's efforts to pressure Moscow to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

The alliance has been raising output slightly in a series of boosts all year, after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024.

OPEC+ nations are trying to reach consensus on how to adjust their oil production next month, with either a modest or more substantial supply increase possible, delegates said.