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August Class 8 orders rise on soft year-ago comparisons
Sequential declines mark end of seasonal cycle
“The main issue now is incremental cost,” FTR's Moyer said. (Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg)
Key Takeaways:
- ACT Research said August Class 8 orders rose 31% annually to 16,800 but fell 25.5% from July amid normal seasonality.
- FTR estimated 18,200 orders, up 42% annually and down 19% monthly, while year-to-date orders climbed 111%.
- Model year 2027 ordering opens in September after EPA proposed compliance changes and the pre-buy effectively ended, FTR said.
North American Class 8 truck orders slowed sequentially in August, in line with seasonal norms as build slots began filling, but jumped on an annual basis against easy comparisons.
ACT Research said preliminary data showed orders rose 31% annually to 16,800 units but noted the results came against year-ago weakness affected by tariff-related instability and soft carrier profitability. The August results were down 25.5% from July.
“Demand for new equipment remains strong, supported by meaningfully improved freight rates,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Despite freight volume headwinds driven by weakness in housing and K-shaped consumer spending, the recovery in U.S. manufacturing and data center/utility buildout are marginally aiding the demand side of the freight equation.”
Vieth said supply constraints and rate improvements have largely been driven by capacity contractions but noted that stricter enforcement of hours-of-service rules, the Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II carrier vetting case and new carrier registration rules are also playing a role.
“Q2 earnings from the publicly traded group of [truckload] carriers highlight the fleets’ profitability recovery, with aggregate net profit margins hitting a nearly-three-year high in Q2,” Vieth said.
FTR Transportation Intelligence found that preliminary net orders increased 42% year over year to 18,200 units in August but decreased 19% from the prior month. FTR noted this sequential decline largely reflected normal summer seasonality rather than weaker underlying demand, marking the end of the order season and pre-buys ahead of new emission rules. The latest results put year-to-date orders 111% above the same period in 2025.
“The main issue now is incremental cost,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR. “OEM strategies are diverging as some have decided to offer both EPA 2027-compliant engines and current-technology engines with [nonconformance penalties] while at least one manufacturer plans to offer only a fully compliant option.”
RELATED: Truck buyers await EPA emissions clarity
The Environmental Protection Agency published proposed changes to its 2027 heavy-duty engine and vehicle compliance framework in July. The notice of proposed rulemaking would rein in extended warranty requirements, curb diesel exhaust fluid engine derating requirements and add temporary nonconformance penalties to give manufacturers more flexibility on compliance.
“It’s important to keep in mind that EPA’s July proposal is just that,” Moyer said. “Overall, August marks the close of the 2026 order season and the effective end of the EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy. September begins a new phase with [model year] 2027 ordering opening.”
