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Truck buyers await EPA emissions clarity
Class 8 sales trending up despite regulatory uncertainty
Tam suspects that the industry is likely to experience some unevenness until a final EPA rule brings clarity. (Freightliner Trucks via Facebook)
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. Class 8 retail truck sales rose 2.2% year over year in July to 19,254 units, marking a second consecutive monthly increase.
- EPA revisions proposed July 9 could ease 2027 emissions-related costs, while uncertain final rules are keeping buyers and manufacturers cautious.
- ACT said July Class 8 orders jumped 68% year over year as fleets sought production slots ahead of emissions changes.
Demand for new heavy-duty trucks has continued to strengthen despite equipment market uncertainty as truck and engine manufacturers adjust to proposed revisions for emissions regulations.
U.S. Class 8 retail truck sales surpassed year-ago levels for a second straight month, with Omdia Automotive data showing that July purchases increased 2.2% to 19,254 units from 18,838 reported during the same month last year. However, sales were down 5.9% from the 20,452 units sold in June.
“The year-over-year growth is really what we’re looking for,” ACT Research Vice President Steve Tam said. “It was a reasonably good number last July, so the progress is heartening. We do typically see a bit of a slowdown going from June to July, although this was a little bit stronger.”
The sales figures provide an updated look into the equipment market in light of the Environmental Protection Agency’s July 9 notice of proposed rulemaking aimed at lessening the financial burden that upcoming nitrogen oxide emissions standards will have on new heavy-duty trucks starting in January. The proposal would rein in extended warranty requirements, eliminate diesel exhaust fluid engine deratements and introduce temporary nonconformance penalties to give manufacturers more flexibility on compliance.
“Folks are focused on that and concentrating on getting their input in to let the EPA know what they think about the suggested rules,” Tam said. “But secondly, they’re in a holding pattern because we don’t know what the final rules are going to be. We’re starting to hear some announcements from some of the engine manufacturers in terms of what their plans are.”
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Tam
Tam suspects that the industry is likely to experience some unevenness until a final rule brings clarity. He is optimistic that the underlying freight market has been showing promising signs, though he is keeping watch on what appears to be a slowdown in spot rates.
“They hit a ceiling in July,” Tam said. “Rates have been coming down for all three equipment types, for vans, reefers and flatbeds. And so, that suggests, again, excess capacity, which from a sales perspective could mean two things. It’s too many trucks or it’s not enough freight, or maybe it’s a combination of both.”
Sales by manufacturer
Omdia data showed that sales declined for five of the seven major truck manufacturers in July despite the overall market growth.
Freightliner claimed the largest market share at 35.7% after growing sales 24.1% to 6,867 trucks, up from the 5,532 reported last year. Western Star sales decreased 18.1% to 865 units from 1,056.
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Randall
Monthly sales at Mack Trucks dipped 0.8% to 1,890 units from 1,905 the prior year.
“Strong freight rates and signs of improving freight demand are resulting in stronger fleet interest in purchasing new trucks,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “We expect the pace of retail sales to continue to improve year over year as freight demand continues to increase and prebuy activity picks up.”
Volvo Trucks North America sales increased 3.2% to 1,983 units from 1,921 last year. The truck manufacturer had anticipated that total retail sales would be lower sequentially due to seasonality. Its own data reflected that, with total sales coming in at 21,493 units for the U.S. and Canada.
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Koeck
“Looking ahead, we expect a significantly stronger second half of the year,” said Magnus Koeck, VTNA vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management. “Demand is returning, freight rates are improving, and carriers are seeing better profitability. Fuel efficiency, safety and total cost of ownership remain key priorities for fleets.”
Sales at International Motors decreased 14.5% to 1,974 units from 2,309. The truck maker reported that demand for its S13 Integrated Powertrain remained strong as fleets prioritize fuel expenses and cost of ownership. Justina Morosin, senior vice president of sales and field operations, also views the growth in total retail sales from last year as signaling market resilience.
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“Customers are actively looking to secure 2026 production slots to get ahead of EPA 2027 emissions technology changes and the higher costs,” Morosin said. “As the market normalizes toward replacement-driven demand, customers are increasingly focused on value and pricing, which should continue to draw down dealer inventories.”
Peterbilt Motors Co. truck sales decreased 3.2% to 2,877 units from 2,972, while Kenworth Truck Co. sales declined 11.1% to 2,791 units from 3,138.
How fleets are planning
Meanwhile, preliminary data from ACT Research showed North American Class 8 truck orders increased 68% year over year to 22,100 units in July, but that figure was also 30% below the prior month. The factory order data represents a larger market and is more forward-looking than the retail sales data, but it can indicate how buyers are planning future equipment purchases.
“The sentiment of the industry is ’27-compliant product is not going to be as expensive as has previously been expected,” Tam said. “Folks are in a position where we’ve got this pent-up demand, we need to get it relieved. If it’s going to be less punitive for them to do that then, in all likelihood, we’re going to see more units go out the door.”
