Strong Class 8 orders meet limits of 2026 production

ACT noted that uncertainty surrounding federal emissions regulations may be influencing buying decisions. (Ryan Collerd/Bloomberg)

North American Class 8 truck orders remained well above year-earlier levels in July as trucking industry fundamentals continued to improve, according to analysts.

Preliminary ACT Research data released Aug. 5 showed Class 8 orders rose 68% year over year to 22,100 units in July. But the numbers also came in 30% below the prior month. ACT said the year-over-year increase reflected easier prior-year comparisons and improving trucking fundamentals.

“The sizable [month-over-month] decline doesn’t reflect a sudden drop in demand for new equipment but indicates a lack of 2026 build slots available as orders run up against full Class 8 backlogs,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT. “Something we flagged as a possibility earlier this year.

ACT also noted that uncertainty surrounding federal emissions regulations may be influencing buying decisions.

The Environmental Protection Agency has proposed changes to its 2027 heavy-duty engine rule. The proposal would ease warranty requirements that truck and engine manufacturers have warned could increase costs and complicate the rollout of new diesel engines. The proposal would leave the underlying emissions standards in place but ease some industry burdens.

“Lack of EPA clarity, at least until the end of August, may also be impacting orders, as OEMs and customers both await finality regarding regulations/penalties/pricing before 2027 order boards open,” Vieth said.

FTR Transportation Intelligence reported a similar trend Aug. 5, estimating preliminary Class 8 net orders at 22,000 units, up 75% from a year earlier. They were also down 31% sequentially. FTR said replacement demand, firmer freight rates, improving utilization and a moderate pre-buy ahead of new emissions requirements continue to support the market. But most 2026 production slots have already been spoken for, and manufacturers have yet to open 2027 order boards.

“With calendar 2026 production essentially sold out, attention shifts to decisions on model-year 2027 engine technology, pricing and build timing,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR. “Almost all model-year 2027 engines are expected to carry manufacturer upcharges tied to compliance.”

Moyer added that the proposed revisions to the rule introduce considerable flexibility for truck and engine manufacturers to address fleet demands. Under the proposal, manufacturers could continue building current-technology engines beyond 2026 indefinitely, though they would be subject to nonconformance penalties (NCPs).

“Several engine manufacturers have already announced plans to use NCPs to offer both current and new platforms well into 2027, and others are considering doing so,” Moyer said. “Overall, July’s preliminary order volume suggests that Class 8 demand remains healthy as activity normalizes.”

Volvo Trucks North America data showed that Class 8 orders in the U.S. and Canada totaled 20,533 units in July. This marked the slowest month of the year, down 9,000 units from June. But the truck maker now views order activity as being at a healthy level.

“We can now see improved freight rates both in the spot market and contract business, and we also see that the carriers’ profitability slowly is coming back,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at VTNA.

Mack Trucks North America reported that preliminary orders for the month continued to trend above the prior year, but have cooled from strong first quarter levels as production availability across the industry has become limited. 

“Freight rates continue to improve as capacity tightens and freight demand recovers,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “Continued inflation growth represents a headwind, but so far doesn’t seem to have impacted fleet decisions even with elevated diesel prices.”