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Paccar Sees Truck Sales, Production Accelerating in Q2
Surge Predicted After Kenworth, Peterbilt Q1 Sales Fall 19.8%
Key Takeaways:
- Paccar executives expect Class 8 truck production to accelerate significantly in the second quarter after a slow first-quarter build rate.
- The company maintained its 2026 North American Class 8 retail sales forecast of 230,000-270,000 trucks.
- Paccar expects margins to improve with higher plant output despite rising energy and raw material costs.
North American Class 8 truck sales and production levels are set to accelerate significantly in the second quarter of 2026, according to Paccar executives.
“I think we’re at the beginning of what feels like an acceleration,” CEO Preston Feight told analysts April 28, adding that annualized industrywide build rates in the first three months of 2026 were around 200,000.
U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales are still expected to be in a range of 230,000-270,000 trucks in 2026, according to Paccar, unchanged from the parent company of Class 8 truck brands Kenworth and Peterbilt’s prognostication when releasing its fourth-quarter 2025 results.
“I think our view is shaped by the fact that the first quarter really didn’t have a high cadence to it. So if the first quarter ran at something around or a little under 200,000, then in order for it to come to the midpoint at 250,000, there’s going to be already a rapid acceleration,” Feight said during Paccar’s first-quarter 2026 earnings call.
Feight said all of Kenworth and Peterbilt’s Q2 build slots were full, and a majority were already spoken for in the third and fourth quarters.
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Feight
Kenworth and Peterbilt sold 17,800 vehicles in the U.S. and Canada in Q1, a decrease of 19.8% compared with 22,200 trucks in the year-ago period, Paccar said. Kenworth sold 5,881 Class 8 trucks in the U.S. in the first three months of 2026, down 18.6% compared with 7,229 trucks in 2025, according to Omdia Automotive data. Peterbilt sold 6,255 Class 8 trucks in Q1, a decrease of 16.5% year over year from 7,491.
In the first quarter, Peterbilt and Kenworth secured 15.5% and 14.6% shares of Class 8 retail sales, respectively, compared with 14.8% and 14.3% a year earlier.
North American Truck Market Share
Paccar is aiming for a 35% share of the North American heavy-duty truck market, a senior executive told analysts Feb. 10. Paccar brands won a combined 30.3% share of the Class 8 truck retail market in 2025, according to Omdia data. The brands secured an overall share of 30.9% in 2024.
In the near term, however, the upside for Paccar and its peers across the rest of 2026 cuts across a wide swath of freight market sectors, according to the company’s top executive, noting that the ramp-up in demand had been “pretty uniform.”
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Baney
“We’ve seen over-the-road companies getting their recovery now with spot rates up double digits, maybe even up to 20%. We’ve seen contract rates improving. So that’s helping our truckload carriers. The vocational market continues to be solid as well as the [less-than-truckload segment]. So we’re seeing orders coming in from kind of all sides as people want to make sure that they have their fleet in the right spot for [this] year and next year,” Feight said.
Q1 saw an increase in utilization in the leasing market as well as stronger used truck prices and demand, Paccar President Kevin Baney added during the call, echoing comments from Ryder System earlier this earnings season.
Ryder ranks No. 6 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America, with Ryder Dedicated Transportation Solutions ranking No. 5 among truckload/dedicated carriers.
Used Truck Sales Surge in March
Used truck retail sales in March were the highest in almost five years, according to J.D. Power Director of Specialty Vehicles Chris Visser.
Paccar Financial Services’ PacLease unit, which offers full-service truck leasing in North America and Europe, has a fleet of around 37,000 vehicles. PFS posted Q1 revenue of $542.2 million, up 2.7% compared with $528 million in the year-ago period.
Overall, Paccar reported revenue of $6.78 billion in the most recent quarter, down 8.9% compared with $7.44 billion. The company posted net income of $605.3 million in Q1, up 19.8% compared with $505.1 million, although the latter included a $264.5 million after-tax charge related to civil litigation in Europe.
Paccar’s gross margin increased to 13.1% in Q1 and is expected to be 13.5% in Q2, with further upside seen in the second half of 2026, Feight told analysts.
Bellevue, Wash.-based Paccar expects its manufacturing margin to increase on an expected rise in plant output, although that will be offset somewhat by prices for energy, steel, aluminum and other raw materials, the company’s top executive said.
