The oil market is turning its attention back to the United States as more of its rigs return to work after a surge to $50 a barrel, raising concern that a production rebound may stifle crude’s recovery.

Oil bulls distressed that last week’s rally fizzled can find some comfort in forecasts for a bigger and longer rebound by the end of the year.

A rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar may send Brent oil to as low as $20 a barrel, according to Morgan Stanley.