Trump advisers weigh impact of short-term diesel export ban

A driver refuels a tractor with diesel at a Chevron truck stop in Tracy, Calif. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)

President Donald Trump’s economic advisers are analyzing the ramifications of a potential short-term ban on U.S. diesel exports, underscoring the seriousness of the administration’s consideration of the idea.

Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said the study being conducted by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer aims to inform the administration’s decision-making on possible export curbs. 

“The idea is that you get Bessent and Greer and Hassett to do that analysis and if, on a short-term basis — and we are in harvest season right now — it would show that it would help, then it is something we should consider doing,” Hoeven said. 

Several farm-state lawmakers have urged Trump to limit foreign sales of U.S. diesel, as conflicts in Russia and the Middle East take supplies offline and spike prices for the fuel right at the peak of the fall harvest season in the U.S.

Diesel is essential for powering farm equipment and is a critical fuel for modern shipping, propelling freight trains, longhaul trucks and delivery vans. And its retail cost — which hit a new high this week and averaged $6.51 per gallon on Sept. 23 — is adding to voter anxieties about the cost of living ahead of November’s midterm elections. 

A timeline for the government’s economic analysis was not immediately available. But the study, described by people familiar with the matter, is expected to forecast a mix of potential consequences — including both lower and higher prices — that could be used by administration officials either to justify or ward off a ban. 

Bob McNally, founder and president at Rapidan Energy Group, explains the potential global market impact if the United States was to ban the export of diesel https://t.co/zbZnBlXchD pic.twitter.com/UeyrEbGEcR

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) September 21, 2026

The study shouldn’t be viewed as an indication the administration is leaning one way or the other, one of the people said. Instead, it’s a standard analysis, like others routinely used by the White House to examine potential economic policies, the person said.

Energy experts have said export curbs could yield temporary price discounts on diesel initially, with refiners blocked from selling to foreign buyers. However, those short-term price reductions would likely fade swiftly — and be replaced with even higher costs — as rising U.S. fuel inventories prompt oil producers and refiners to cut output.

Trump hasn’t decided whether to impose export limits, though he told reporters Sept. 22 he’d recommended the move to advisers. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sept. 23 the administration was working with refiners on voluntary action to boost diesel supplies domestically, a move that could head off a broad ban.

A White House official said Trump wants to see gas prices at the pump fall and is evaluating all options on the table.

Oil executives and allies on Capitol Hill have warned that even a short-term ban could have long-term repercussions, deterring necessary investment in new refining and pipeline capacity. 

“Banning diesel exports attacks the symptom of high prices while ignoring our critical shortage of refining capacity and pipeline infrastructure. Fuel locked on the Gulf Coast cannot simply be moved from Houston to Midwest farmers or East Coast truckers overnight, and shutting off export outlets will force refiners to cut overall production,” said Sen. Alan Armstrong (R-Okla.). 

“The answer to high energy prices isn’t to ration American energy; it’s to pass permitting reform and build the infrastructure needed to produce, move, and sell more energy,” he added.