Gas prices head to $4 again in heart of road trip season

A motorist is silhouetted by the setting sun. (Charlie Riedel/AP)

It’s the middle of summer driving season, when Americans typically embark on road trips and burn through millions of barrels of gasoline each day. They’ll be paying more for every fill-up.

U.S. retail gasoline prices are once again nearing the $4-a-gallon mark, with renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran exacerbating an already tight fuel market. Average pump prices stood at $3.98 a gallon as of July 16, according to data from the American Automobile Association — up nearly 20 cents in just 10 days. 

READ MORE: Diesel prices spike above $5 a gallon again

Gasoline prices have been a consistent pain point for U.S. consumers in the months since the Iran war broke out and disrupted global energy shipments. Supplies have remained tight, and a stark loss of fuel-making capacity in Russia due to recent Ukrainian drone attacks has worsened the situation. U.S. oil refineries, meanwhile, are also placing an outsized focus on producing jet fuel and diesel rather than gasoline.

“July is typically one of the busiest driving months of the year, so rising gas prices can feel like the rug is being pulled out from under consumers just as they’re hitting the road,” said Thomas Weinandy, principal research economist at Upside, an app that provides cash back on gas purchases. “It’s a one-two punch: higher prices at the pump and the back-and-forth in pricing that makes it harder to budget. Many are asking themselves, do I fill up today or hold out until tomorrow?”

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Even during the weeks when the now-shattered ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran pressured crude oil futures lower, gasoline remained stubbornly high. Pump prices, which fell below $4 in June, only briefly dipped below the $3.80 mark in early July before beginning to rebound. In a number of states, including Michigan, Maine and Pennsylvania, prices have already returned above the $4 mark after dropping back into the $3 range.

Inflation Concerns 

The march back to $4 gasoline is ramping up concerns that U.S. inflation, which slowed last month on declining fuel prices, might flare again. It also adds to the political challenge for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party ahead of the fall’s midterm elections. Democrats have seized on affordability — particularly high gas prices — as a key issue in the party’s effort to win back both the House and Senate.

eesh- not a pretty sight coming for motorists- continued surges in gasoline spot prices make it only time before the national average hits $4 (we may not hit that until the next round of price cycles)- nearly all states will see at least another week of rising gas prices — Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) July 17, 2026

The strain on consumers isn’t yet as bad as it was in May, when prices averaged more than $4.50 a gallon. 

“People complain, but if they have plans, they don’t usually change much in the summer,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. It’s unusual for prices to fall below $4 and then return above the mark in the same summer, he said, but only a month has passed since consumers saw the $4-a-gallon prices.

“It hasn’t been very long since we hit it,” De Haan said. “So it’s not exactly like twisting the knife again.”

Still, there may yet be room for prices to run even higher. As the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on, it’s possible that crude prices will make further gains. That would, in turn, send gasoline on a next leg up as well. 

Meanwhile, margins for making gasoline from crude oil are at record highs, indicating that the market is calling out for more of the fuel. U.S. refiners are already running at maximum capacity in an effort to supply fuels both for domestic consumption and exports. The situation runs the risk of sparking unplanned outages, which in turn could trigger outsized gasoline price shocks amid unusually low stockpiles.