By Timothy Cama, Staff Reporter This story appears in the May 30 print edition of Transport Topics.
Freight transportation will grow “significantly” over the next decade, while trucking’s share of that market will rise steadily, according to a new American Trucking Associations report.
ATA’s “U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2022” predicted that total freight tonnage throughout all modes will grow 24% by 2022, while the industry’s revenue will increase 66%.
Trucking’s share of the total freight tonnage will grow to 70% in 2022, from the current 67%, ATA said in a statement announcing the release of the report May 20. Trucking’s share of freight revenue will inch up to 81.4% from 81.2% in 2010.
“We have a much clearer picture in this forecast of the current economic conditions than we did a year ago,” said Bob Costello, chief economist at ATA. “I think that’s a key component.”
The forecast begins with 2010 and uses that as a baseline for all its forecasts, Costello said.
“A year ago, we were hopeful, we were wondering,” he said. “And now we know we’re on the right track.”
ATA publishes the report annually, working with industry forecasting firm IHS Global Insight and transportation consulting firm Martin Labbe Associates. It has published the report each year for more than 15 years, Costello said.
“The current picture is going to dictate where we end up,” he added. “That’s why I think these forecasts are a little bit better than last year.”
Dividing its forecast into two periods of six years each, the report predicted an average of 2.7% in tonnage increases per year until 2016, then a 1% yearly average until 2022.
The trucking industry’s share of the freight market will grow, though the pace will be slower than in the past, the report said. Trucking will continue dominate in the transportation of general commodities, which will grow faster than bulk commodities.
Freight rail’s share of the total market will fall to 14.6% in 2022 from 15.3% in 2010 in terms of tonnage, the report said. That includes intermodal rail freight, though intermodal by itself will rise 6.6% per year through 2016 and 5.5% per year from 2017 to 2022, on average.
Maritime freight commerce will grow 2% per year through 2016 and 0.2% per year from 2017 to 2022, the report predicted. Air freight tonnage will gain 4.7% a year through 2016 and 3.9% in each of the later years.
Pipeline tonnage will increase an average of 0.5% per year throughout the study’s time period.
The report is available for purchase at www.atabusinesssolutions.com.
