Mobility Global trims 2026, 2027 Class 8 forecasts

Workers assemble a truck at a Volvo manufacturing plant. Mobility Global cut its calendar-year 2026 forecast for U.S. Class 8 truck and tractor registrations by 1,532 to 217,589 in its third-quarter calculations. (Volvo Trucks via YouTube)

Expectations are ebbing for the volume of Class 8 trucks and tractors set to enter service with fleets in the United States in 2026 and 2027, especially the latter, according to Mobility Global.

A weak first half of 2026 in terms of production and registrations plus skepticism that truck manufacturers’ supply chains will be able to keep up with carrier appetite in 2027 moderated the latest quarterly forecasts from the research and analysis group spun off by S&P Global in July.

Mobility Global trimmed its calendar-year 2026 forecast for U.S. Class 8 truck and tractor registrations by 1,532 to 217,589 in its third-quarter calculations from 219,121 in the second quarter.

“We made some reductions based on some weakness in the first half, but that was balanced with some increases in the second half,” said Andrej Divis, executive director for global heavy truck research.

“We are counting on that turning around, starting to bend that demand curve upwards in the second half,” he told Transport Topics, citing an upturn in orders, production and sales.

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Divis 

Data from ACT Research showed North American Class 8 orders increased 68% year over year to 22,100 units in July. It was the eighth consecutive month with a year-on-year increase.

July’s figures followed June order data that showed a more than 100% year-over-year climb for a fifth month in a row, ACT data shows. North American Class 8 orders totaled 31,400 trucks in June, a 231% jump compared with the year-ago period.

Mobility Global boosted its Q3 forecast for 2026 production by 2.5%, or 3,865 vehicles, to 161,117 trucks and tractors from Q2’s 157,252 as a result of the strength of truck makers’ orders.

Many of the research group’s assumptions about trade policy, energy prices and regulatory developments including the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 nitrogen oxide emissions rules were playing out as expected, said Divis.

EPA’s draft emissions rule includes rolling back warranty requirements for new heavy-duty trucks, which is expected to cut the price of new trucks alongside softer compliance standards.

Engine maker Cummins also increased its North American heavy-duty truck demand forecast to 240,000 to 250,000 units from prior guidance of 230,000 to 250,000 as a result of the update.

Demand is rising so rapidly that International Motors is investigating establishing a second production shift at the truck maker’s San Antonio assembly plant, although the reasons also have a significant company-specific angle.

International is planning an overhaul of its on-highway truck portfolio’s cabs, the truck maker is looking to increase its share of North American Class 8 truck sales, and market demand is at the start of an upcycle, executives at parent company Traton Group said July 23.

But Mobility Global cut its 2027 U.S. Class 8 production forecast by 17,207 vehicles or 9.7% to 161,117 trucks and tractors from 178,197, partly for a similar reason, although the prognostication almost matches that for 2026.

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Katakis 

“Because there’s been a lot of activity in production now, we think that that’s pulling a little bit of energy from ’27,” said Senior Analyst Manny Katakis.

“The other part of this is that we don’t think that the supply chain can scale so quickly. And so there’s going to be someone who’s going to fall behind a little bit,” he added.

As a result, Mobility Global cut its Q3 forecast for 2027 U.S. registrations by 5,374 vehicles to 246,001 from 251,735.

Mobility Global tracks registrations as a proxy for demand rather than retail sales. Divis said there is a longer lag between sales and registrations than usual, which he said may be because of the pace of upfitting or individual states’ bureaucracy.