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Class 8 Sales Fall Year Over Year Despite May Gains
Improving Market Conditions Boost Monthly Results, but Buyer Hesitation Persists
Key Takeaways:
- Class 8 retail sales fell 8% year over year in May but rose 8.4% from April, signaling modest improvement amid continued caution.
- Buyers remain hesitant due to inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and weak profitability despite improving manufacturing activity and freight fundamentals.
- Manufacturers have increased inventory levels while most major truck makers reported declining sales, highlighting a gap between supply and demand.
U.S. Class 8 retail sales continue to face buyer reticence even as improving market conditions spurred growing optimism in May.
Omdia Automotive data showed sales for the month decreased 8% to 17,280 from 18,778 year over year but were up 8.4% from 15,941 in April. Year to date, sales dropped 16% to 73,419 units from 87,447.
“We’re starting to see those signs of improvement, and they’re translating over into the freight and commercial vehicle arena,” ACT Research Vice President Steve Tam said. “But there’s just still this reticence, or this reluctance, or this nervousness, I’m not sure, on behalf of many of the buyers to actually commit.”
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Report expanded for the fifth consecutive month by coming in at 54% in May, the highest reading since May 2022.
ICYMI The May ISM® PMI® Reports make it clear: Demand is real. Manufacturing hit a four-year high, services inventories tied a record, and orders remain strong. The questions? Geopolitics and hiring.
Manufacturing https://t.co/IXGqYy489q
Services https://t.co/NtHRINLQVf pic.twitter.com/cu9abybuEH — Institute for Supply Management (@ism) June 15, 2026
Tam, while noting that the positive fundamentals are slow to translate into truck sales, also said manufacturers appear to be toeing the line on increasing production.
“We’ve actually, on the Class 8 side — at the North America level, not just the U.S. level — added about 6,000 or 6,500 units of inventory since the beginning of the year,” Tam said. “This is not where we want to be going. I can understand the strategy if you’re hedging against price increases on the ’27 EPA-compliant stuff. But we need to see the demand.”
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ACT Research's Steve Tam says inflationary pressure might be the biggest single reason Class 8 sales have remained tepid. (ACT Research)
Tam sees the sequential increase as a positive sign given that seasonal softness usually starts to dissipate this time of year. It’s particularly encouraging, he says, given the difference from the previous month is usually closer to flat for May.
There are, however, reasons for caution: One is the Iran war, Tam said.
“It’s still this situation in Iran, and really more broadly just the impact on the macro economy,” he said. “The inflation numbers are not behaving, and if you pointed to one single thing that has them nervous about their prospects, I think, that’s it.”
Omdia data showed sales declined for six of the seven major truck manufacturers. Freightliner, a brand of Daimler Truck North America, claimed the largest market share with 6,617 trucks sold, or 38.3% of all sales. This also marked the only increase, at 8.9%, from 6,076. Western Star sales, another DTNA brand, decreased 33.7% to 657 units from 991.
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Randall
“May retail sales continued to improve month-over-month, though year-over-year comparisons remain soft as fleets work through ongoing profitability headwinds,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “Firming activity in industrial and construction is a positive sign for near-term freight demand, even as consumer spending remains subdued.”
Randall expects the pace of improvement to continue as freight volumes gradually build and prebuy activity increases. Volvo Trucks North America sales slipped 4.2% to 1,604 units from 1,675. Mack Trucks sales declined 10.3% to 1,469 units from 1,637.
“As expected, Class 8 retail sales in the U.S. and Canada strengthened in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth in North America,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at VTNA. “We expect the retails to strengthen even further in Q3 and Q4. At the same time, fleets remain cautious.”
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Koeck
Koeck added that carriers are becoming more optimistic, but overall profitability is still not where it needs to be. While capacity has left the market, he noted, freight volumes need to improve for fleets to see a meaningful increase in profitability.
“On top of that, higher operating costs, including elevated diesel prices, continue to put pressure on their bottom line, which is impacting the pace of the retail recovery,” Koeck said. “Fuel efficiency and total cost of ownership remain key priorities for customers in this environment.”
International sales dipped 3.5% to 1,953 units from 2,024. Peterbilt Motors Co. truck sales decreased 15.9% to 2,611 from 3,105. Kenworth Truck Co. sales decreased 27.5% to 2,368 from 3,267.
