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Class 8 Orders Extend Rebound in May
ACT and FTR Again Report Triple-Digit Year-Over-Year Gains as Demand Stays Strong Ahead of Summer
Key Takeaways:
- North American Class 8 truck orders rose 103% year over year to 26,500 units in May, ACT Research said.
- FTR reported 26,600 orders, 56% above the 10-year May average, citing freight rates, utilization and 2026 build-slot limits.
- Analysts and truck makers expect seasonal slowing as fleets weigh EPA 2027 rules, financing pressures and limited manufacturing capacity.
North American Class 8 truck orders stayed well ahead of year-earlier levels in May, extending a monthslong rebound even as the market moves into what is typically a slower stretch.
ACT Research preliminary data showed orders increased 103% year over year to 26,500 units. Orders also climbed 12% from April.
May was the sixth straight month of year-over-year growth, though the gain was less steep than April’s 201% surge.
“Class 8 order strength continued in May,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Despite the lack of build slots remaining in 2026 and entering what is historically a weak seasonal order period, new equipment demand remains buoyed by materially improved spot and contract rates, on top of regulatory clarity.”
FTR Transportation Intelligence reported an even larger year-over-year gain, with Class 8 preliminary net orders up 124% to 26,600 units in May. That marked the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year growth above 120%. Orders also increased 4% from April and were 56% above the 10-year May average of 17,046 units.
“The May result reinforces that demand remains healthy,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR. “At the same time, the order pace is likely to slow as normal summer seasonality takes hold, and 2026 build slots become increasingly limited.”
Moyer said replacement needs, firming freight rates, rising utilization, tighter capacity, limited build availability and moderate pre-buy activity ahead of new emissions standards are supporting demand. The Environmental Protection Agency is pursuing tighter nitrogen oxides limits for heavy-duty trucks starting with model year 2027.
“With demand exceptionally strong, the focus of the cycle has now shifted to whether truck manufacturers can execute against the stronger backlog,” Moyer said. “Build execution, supplier readiness, labor availability and delivery timing will become increasingly important as 2026 progresses.”
Still, Moyer warned that risks could prompt some fleets to defer or cancel orders placed to secure 2026 capacity. Freight improvements could stall, financing pressures could persist, geopolitical risks remain unresolved and the final EPA rule could differ materially from expectations. For now, though, he said orders are coming in stronger than expected.
“Class 8 orders in the U.S. and Canada totaled 24,579 units in May,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at Volvo Trucks North America. “Orders were up compared to April, but significantly down compared to the massive orders we did see from December-March.”
Brian Antonellis of Fleet Advantage discusses how fleet leaders should be thinking about capital planning with the 2027 NOx emissions rules on the horizon. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com.
Koeck said the decline from late-winter order levels reflects 2026 build slots filling up. He expects fewer orders for the next couple of months because price books for the next model year have not been released. He also said the Volvo VNL and VNR models already are delivering fuel savings that are expected to improve with an upcoming EPA 2027 engine.
“May orders continued to show year-over-year growth, though the pace has cooled from Q1,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “Pre-buy activity is increasing as many fleets weigh their purchasing strategy against anticipated cost increases for 2027 model year vehicles.”
Improving freight rates and recovering demand remain positives, Randall said. But elevated diesel prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East are keeping some fleets on the sidelines.
“This month’s Class 8 truck orders are continuing to run strong, much like what we saw last month — defying typical seasonal patterns,” said Justina Morosin, senior vice president of sales and field operations at International. “Year-over-year comparisons aren’t especially meaningful this time around, since last spring’s numbers were unusually low due to tariff disruptions.”
Morosin said surging freight rates and a robust freight environment are driving the momentum, giving fleets enough confidence to catch up on deferred investments and secure 2026 build slots.
“At the same time, upcoming EPA 2027 NOx regulations are very much on everyone’s radar as a key planning factor,” Morosin said.
