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Bid Season Gains Spur Optimism in Trucking
Carriers Cite Better Rates, Tighter Capacity and First-Quarter Tailwinds
Key Takeaways:
- Trucking executives reported more constructive contract bid-season talks and early pricing gains in the first quarter despite ongoing freight market and geopolitical pressures.
- Analysts and lenders said tighter capacity, winter weather and operational efficiencies boosted rates and shipper spending, with contract renewals reaching high-single-digit increases.
- Carriers expect stronger pricing momentum through the second half as produce season and peak freight demand test reduced industry capacity and service reliability.
Trucking companies expressed optimism during the first quarter over contract bid-season gains that are helping to counter lingering industry issues.
Ongoing headwinds weighed on trucking in the first quarter, but carriers also pointed to emerging tailwinds. The industry has had to grapple with a prolonged freight market downcycle, geopolitical uncertainties and market pressures. But among the potential bright spots carriers cited were a more constructive contract bid season and better pricing power.
“Customer conversations during bid season have become more constructive, though there is still work to do to fully restore pricing and margins,” J.B. Hunt Transport Services CEO Shelley Simpson said during an investor call. “We are pushing where appropriate and remain confident in the value we deliver.”
Simpson described a meaningfully different freight environment with improved customer responses and early signs of strengthening demand. The company ranks No. 3 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America and No. 4 on the TT Top 100 list of the largest logistics companies.
“As the supply and demand dynamic tightens, we are seeing rate lift and early positive momentum in the bid season,” Werner Enterprises CEO Derek Leathers said during a call. “We expect pricing gains to continue with more meaningful improvement in the third and fourth quarters.”
Leathers added that these developments have strengthened the business and provided a line of sight to earnings growth this year.
Werner ranks No. 18 on the for-hire TT100 and No. 30 on the logistics TT100.
“That to us is evidence of all of these data points trickling down to the shipper community,” said Bruce Chan, managing director of global transportation and logistics at Stifel Capital Markets. “Even prior to the third-quarter print, you heard a lot of carriers talking about renewals and tenders coming back in at positive rates.”
Chan added that by the fourth quarter, carriers were generally expecting flat to mid-single-digit contract renewals. This confidence only grew by the end of the first quarter, with carriers extending their contract-renewal expectations into the high-single-digit to low-double-digit range.
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But he also suspects there is less ability in the system to absorb episodic demand spikes because the supply leaving the market has also caused more service failures and tender rejections.
“We saw that with the winter storms earlier this year,” Chan said. “I suspect that we will see a lot more of that in the second quarter, with produce season upon us and the freight second-quarter peak. I think shippers are sensitive to that. They know that they’ve been getting a lot of leeway on rates, and they’ve had a lot of leverage for the better part of, three to four years.”
The Q1 2026 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index found national shipments increased 0.6% from the prior year, while shipper spending grew 21.8%. This reflected tighter capacity, higher rates and rising fuel surcharges. The report also noted that shipments slipped 0.3% sequentially during the quarter, while shippers saw their largest spending increase in nearly six years at 12.9%.
“The more interesting story during earnings season for us was the forward commentary,” said Harrison Bauer, an analyst at Susquehanna International Group. “Rate is clearly making an impact for carriers, and winter weather added to that by pressuring volumes and tightening spot in the process. And bid season expectations have moved with it.”
Mark Hill of PCS Software joins us to discuss logistics as TT releases the Top 100 list of the largest logistics companies in North America. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com.
Bauer added that the base case for contract renewals was revised from mid-single-digit to high-single-digit rate increases. But he has also seen select lane opportunities and renewals coming in at low double digits. He said demand still needs to show genuine improvement to take this cycle to a more durable level, and he doesn’t expect fleets to see growth until inventory restocking, the housing market or consumer activity improves.
“The conversations we’re having with our stakeholders in the industry are positive about the opportunities to increase prices,” said John Crum, head of specialty equipment finance and leasing at Wells Fargo. “It’s not just the increased prices that are causing a little bit of optimism, but it’s the efficiencies and the improvements that carriers have made to their operations, really over the last year or two.”
Crum added that this trend has coincided with opportunities to move prices up a bit in contract and spot markets. He also observed some improvement in carrier performance during the quarter, mostly driven by earlier contracts or efforts to gain operational efficiencies.
“There’s optimism because prices are up a little bit, demand and supply are a little bit more in equilibrium, and they’ve made overall improvements to their operations to be able to recap some of the profitability,” Crum said.
