Truck Dealers’ Optimism on 2026-27 Class 8 Demand Grows

National Automobile Dealers Association headquarters in Tysons, Va. (John M. Chase/Getty Images)

Truck dealers are growing more optimistic about the prospects for Class 8 truck and tractor sales in 2026 and 2027, citing a relative decrease in economic uncertainty and carriers needing to renew their fleets.

American Truck Dealers’ expectations for 2026 Class 8 sales are now 227,000 vehicles, a 7.5% increase compared with 210,000 units at the start of the year, according to National Automobile Dealers Association Chief Economist Patrick Manzi.

Sales in 2027 are now expected to total 250,000 vehicles, an increase of 12% compared with a forecast of 220,000 at the start of 2026, Manzi said. ATD is a division of NADA.

“The business community is realizing that all of the uncertainty out there, be it the tariffs, the war, whatever it is, it’s almost like this is kind of the new normal, and we’ve got to get on with it and move forward and maybe go out and take a bigger risk than maybe we’re comfortable with, but we need to move forward and buy new equipment,” Manzi told Transport Topics in an exclusive interview.

Sales were expected to increase in 2025, but tariffs introduced by the Trump administration — including for medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts — paused investment by carriers uncertain about the macroeconomic environment.

Those same tariffs plus other trade policy initiatives simultaneously delayed any rebound in the freight market, extending the longest downturn in industry memory.

“Unless we start having these just massive policy shifts that change week to week again, I think the industry is going to continue and go forward and make these big capital investments and buy these trucks finally,” Manzi said after a presentation to ATD members in Washington as part of the trade group’s annual Fly-In visit with congressional delegations.

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Manzi 

That’s even without expectations of carriers ramping up purchases to beat the deadline related to the introduction of stricter Environmental Protection Agency nitrogen oxide emissions, an expected surge colloquially known as the “pre-buy.”

Orders for Class 8 trucks rose year on year for a sixth consecutive month in May, totaling 26,500 vehicles for a 103% jump compared with May 2025. May was the fourth month in a row in which there was a 100% or more year-over-year increase.

May’s orders were 56% above the 10-year monthly average of 17,046 units, FTR Transportation Intelligence data shows.

However, through the first five months of 2026, Class 8 sales totaled 73,419 vehicles, down 16% compared with 87,447 in the same period a year earlier, according to Omdia Automotive data.

Truck makers are now playing catch-up after orders in 2025 were so poor that some production lines were shut during the first quarter of the year, including at Volvo Trucks North America’s flagship Dublin, Va., facility.

Dealers are seeing more appetite from carriers, even in the unstable marketplace, and the trend line is moving in the right direction, Korey Neal, CEO of Hyattsville, Md.-based K. Neal Truck and Bus Center, told TT.

“Last year, there was a lot of uncertainty, whether it was tariffs; are they here, are they not? I think that we know that we have a plan to move forward, and tariffs are what they are, so now we can execute based upon the current business environment,” said Neal, whose dealership sells International Motors, Hino and Iveco vehicles.

The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ 2026 State of Logistics Report, released earlier in June, found that uncertainty is now a constant in 2026 and likely to remain so in the coming years.

Carriers are adapting to change, including the supply-driven capacity reductions boosting rates significantly for the first time in four years and expectations of a sustained freight market recovery.