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USMCA uncertainty clouds outlook for trucking
U.S. refusal to extend trade pact puts North American deal on annual review cycle
Key Takeaways:
- The United States did not renew the USMCA by the July 1 review deadline, fueling concerns that a new trade deal may take years.
- Executives said uncertainty can disrupt shipping, sourcing and compliance as cross-border truck freight grew sharply in April, including a 23.4% increase with Mexico.
- The United States and Mexico plan a third negotiating round in the week of July 20, while talks with Canada have not started.
Concerns are growing after the United States decided not to renew its trade pact with Mexico and Canada that a deal may take years to iron out.
The July 1 deadline for a review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement was widely expected to be missed, but the lack of clarity is adding volatility to a freight market seeking a smooth ride to greater prosperity after the longest downturn in industry memory.
“I wonder whether this will be something that we live with for the next couple of years and then maybe something gets signed for a longer-term agreement,” DHL Supply Chain North America CEO Mark Kunar told Transport Topics.
Certainty aids trade volume, and therefore trucking, because executives and investors can make more informed decisions.
“Uncertainty can influence shipping patterns, sourcing conversations and compliance planning before any formal policy changes are made,” Miguel Hernandez, a terminal manager at Bennett Motor Express, told TT as USMCA review talks between the U.S. and Mexico got underway in the spring.
Hernandez is based in Laredo, Texas, the nation’s busiest land port, which handles about 40% of all inbound truck traffic from Mexico, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Bennett Motor Express is part of Bennett Family of Cos., which ranks No. 38 on the TT Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America.
Trucks moved $98.4 billion of freight across the United States’ two land borders in April, up 18.8% compared with April 2025.
Detroit; Port Huron, Mich.; and Buffalo, N.Y., were the top entry and exit points for U.S. freight flows with Canada by truck, while Laredo; El Paso, Texas; and Otay Mesa, Calif., were the busiest cross-border locations for transportation to and from Mexico.
Freight transportation between the U.S. and Mexico was valued at $86 billion in April, up 23.4% compared with April 2025, according to BTS data released June 25.
Some of the key USMCA negotiating points will concern the auto industry.
Kevin Clark of Cox Fleet discusses how fleets should rethink their maintenance strategies to stay efficient and resilient. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com.
In May, trade associations representing much of the North American auto market wrote to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer — who heads the United States’ negotiating team — calling on the Trump administration to strengthen and extend the deal.
In late June, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged lawmakers to support maintaining USMCA as stable, predictable rules for North American commerce and to encourage an “expeditious, transparent and orderly” review.
DHL Express Americas CEO Andrew Williams added in a separate statement: “For logistics providers and customers alike, the ability to move goods efficiently across borders while reducing friction and complexity is essential to sustaining integrated supply chains across North America.”
The United States will meet with Mexico in the week starting July 20 for a third round of bilateral negotiations related to the USMCA review. Official talks with Canada have yet to begin.
Canada and Mexico in early June officially called on the U.S. to renew the deal, in stark contrast to the U.S. position.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has continued to criticize Prime Minister Mark Carney and his countrymen, including social media posts that say Canada should become a U.S. state and that Americans need nothing from north of the border.
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(Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The comments come against a backdrop of uncertainty in U.S. trade policy under Trump, which roiled global commerce in 2025 and contributed heavily to fading hopes last year for a freight market rebound.
But carriers such as R+L Carriers, Southeastern Freight Lines and A. Duie Pyle each expanded their cross-border operations over the past 18 months to take advantage of the USMCA pact at a time when growth in other business opportunities was scant. R+L Carriers ranks No. 16 on the for-hire TT100, while SEFL ranks No. 24 and Pyle No. 51.
The trade policy maelstrom did, however, offer supply chains and carriers something of a dry run for uncertainty over USMCA.
“Last year’s shifts in trade and tariff policies gave many organizations an opportunity to stress-test their supply chains and identify where greater flexibility and resilience were needed,” Kunar noted.
What comes next, according to the top executive at DHL Supply Chain, which is ranked No. 12 on the TT Top 100 list of the largest logistics companies in North America, is further planning and modeling.
Carriers and third-party logistics companies must identify the lanes and customers that are exposed and prepare for dynamic cross-border change, he told TT.
“It might not happen, but [everybody] should scenario plan for that,” he said, adding that shippers should continue to look at single points of failure that would be impacted by the change.
USMCA became effective July 1, 2020. Under Article 34.7 of the treaty, the three governments had to decide by July 1 whether to extend it for a further 16 years. Should any party decline to do so, USMCA begins a cycle of annual reviews.
