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United Airlines Cuts Full-Year Forecast on Rising Fuel Costs
Delta, Alaska Air Deal With Same Pressures
United Airlines Holdings Inc. slashed its full-year profit forecast as higher fuel prices caused by war in the Middle East batter global carriers.
The Chicago-based airline now expects full-year adjusted earnings of $7 to $11 a share. It previously expected its full-year earnings per share for 2026 to be in a range of $12 to $14.
The more cautious outlook puts United broadly in line with peers grappling with the same pressures. Delta Air Lines Inc. decided to not update its full-year outlook, citing uncertainty tied to fuel costs and geopolitical tensions, while Alaska Air Group Inc. pulled guidance for 2026 altogether.
United’s guidance came as it reported better-than-expected quarterly results April 21. It said demand remains strong, particularly among higher-paying customers, echoing comments from Delta and Alaska.
First-quarter adjusted earnings were $1.19 a share, United said, beating the $1.09 analysts expected on average. Revenue rose about 11% to $14.6 billion, also topping expectations of roughly $14.5 billion.
Shares in United were 2% higher in premarket trading April 22 after falling 1.8% the previous day. United has fallen by about 13% this year. U.S. rivals Delta and American Airlines Group Inc. also rose premarket as investors assessed the extension of a ceasefire in the Iran war.
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“Moments of uncertainty for the airline industry may also create opportunity for United,” CEO Scott Kirby said in a statement accompanying the airline’s results.
Revenue from its premium products rose 14% in the quarter, while business travel revenue increased 14% and loyalty revenue climbed 13%, United said.
For the second quarter, United projected earnings of $1 to $2 per share, based on an all-in fuel price of about $4.30 a gallon. Fuel expenses climbed almost 13% in the first quarter to $3.04 billion, up roughly $340 million from a year earlier, the carrier said.
Still, the carrier is pulling back capacity as it braces for higher costs. United said it is reducing planned growth by about 5%, and now expects capacity — or available seat miles — in the second half of 2026 to be flat to up about 2% from a year earlier.
The U.S.-Iran war has caused jet fuel prices to rise, with U.S. carriers bumping up bag fees and ticket prices to try and absorb the increases.
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Low-cost airlines are expected to be the hardest hit. Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc. has floated offering the U.S. government an equity stake in the discount carrier to help stave off its potential liquidation, Bloomberg reported. President Donald Trump said he was open to the idea of the government coming to the airline’s aid.
The recent upheaval has also brought the possibility of consolidation to the fore. Kirby has floated a possible combination with American Airlines directly to Trump, Bloomberg previously reported.
The airline said it expects to recapture about 40% to 50% of higher fuel costs through pricing in the second quarter, rising to as much as 85% to 100% by the fourth quarter.
