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Trailer orders rise in August amid atypical order cycle
U.S. orders jumped 193% from the previous year, and 55% from July, to 24,200 units
(Transport Enterprise Leasing via Facebook)
Key Takeaways:
- August trailer orders jumped to about 24,200 units, rising 193% year over year and 55% from July, according to preliminary ACT data.
- Analysts said improving freight rates, recovering carrier profits and pent-up replacement demand boosted orders despite tariff pressures and continued caution among buyers.
- Industry observers said replacement demand and limited build slots support near-term activity, but flat freight volumes and weak economic sectors cloud sustainability.
U.S. trailer orders posted an unusually strong sequential increase in August, the latest sign that this year’s order cycle remains out of step with historical patterns.
Preliminary data from ACT Research showed orders surged 193% year over year to 24,200 units. ACT noted, however, that the comparison was against a weak market environment in August 2025. Orders also improved 55% from July.
“Seasonally speaking, August net orders should have improved sequentially, so the uptick from July was no surprise,” said Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research at ACT. “The degree of improvement, however, by historical standards was atypical.”
McNealy said July is typically the weakest month in the annual trailer order cycle. This year, however, has been anything but typical. The current order cycle was delayed late last year by weak freight rates and policy-driven uncertainty.
“With freight rates and carrier profits on the mend, August orders are on track to be the best since last December and the second best in the past 30 months,” McNealy said. “Regardless of the timing, the increased order activity is certainly welcome.”
McNealy added that the early surge aligns with anecdotal reports that order boards opened sooner than expected and that few build slots remain for this year. She said the trend has been driven by tariffs, longer-term business conditions and pent-up replacement demand. At the same time, some trailer buyers remain cautious.
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McNealy
“Rates have risen in 2026, but the past few years have been hard for carriers, and now the challenges of growing pent-up demand and higher maintenance costs and downtime remain as counterweights to their new equipment purchase decision-making process,” McNealy said.
Preliminary data from FTR Transportation Intelligence showed trailer orders increased 221% year over year to 24,144 units and rose 43% from July. Like ACT, FTR noted that the year-over-year gain benefited from an easy comparison with a weak August 2025 market. The firm also pointed to firmer replacement demand supported by improving freight rates and tighter capacity.
“The stronger order performance is encouraging, but the recovery remains uneven by segment,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR. “Fleets appear more willing to address replacement needs, while elevated equipment costs and competing capital requirements continue to keep spending selective.”
Moyer added that trade policy is becoming a larger factor in trailer costs for manufacturers and importers. He cited changes involving steel and aluminum tariffs, antidumping and countervailing duty investigations, and retaliatory tariffs imposed by Canada.
“If you look at it as a snapshot in time, especially compared to the last few years, it seems like there’s a lot to be happy about,” said Brandon Lairsen, vice president of trailer leasing at Transport Enterprise Leasing. “I’ll take the business right now for sure. It’s great to have, and there are several, within my own company, that are really optimistic and bullish.”
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Lairsen
Lairsen said the optimism follows five consecutive months of growth in outbound trailer activity. Still, he cautioned that he has not seen broader economic indicators suggesting the recent gains are sustainable. He pointed to a depressed housing market and a relatively stagnant automotive sector.
“There were a record number of trailers built in 2016 and 2017. Those trailers are now aging out of what most shippers would define as acceptable,” Lairsen said. “Because the shippers say they can’t run them, everyone is like, ‘We have to get rid of these 400,000 trailers and replace them.’ I think that’s really more of what’s driving what we’re seeing.”
The Department of Transportation accelerated an ongoing decline in capacity last year by tightening enforcement of non-domiciled commercial driver licenses and English-language proficiency requirements. The trucking industry had been mired in a prolonged downturn due in part to excess capacity relative to freight demand, but those tides are turning.
“We saw some positive signs earlier this year with capacity tightening up, load rejections going up,” Lairsen said. “Most of that was driven by the English-language proficiency mandate from a capacity-tightening perspective. We’ve seen load rejections start to come down again, and we just don’t see freight volumes really significantly increasing.”
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Lairsen said he does not see enough freight activity to support sustained long-term growth. Freight volumes, he noted, have remained relatively flat and are unlikely to improve materially until interest rates and inflation ease enough to spur purchases of homes, vehicles and other big-ticket items.
“We’re seeing a larger volume of inbound freight in the West Coast ports, which suggests that we might have a little bit better-than-average peak season compared with the past few years,” Lairsen said. “But you and I both know that’s short-lived. That’s good for the next few months.”
