Freight Recovery Unearths New Truckload Fault Lines

While an upturn has emerged in the past 12 months, so, too, has a fractured truckload landscape. (grandriver/Getty Images)

The ongoing freight market recovery is unlike any earlier upcycle and is fracturing homogeneity in the national truckload market in a more distinct fashion than seen previously, according to a study released June 16.

It is clear the market has turned and the longest freight downturn in industry memory is at an ending, but unrelenting uncertainty is here to stay, the authors of the study say.

“We can say with a high degree of confidence that the downcycle has come to an end and we are clearly in the path to recovery,” Andres Mendoza Pena, a co-author of the study and partner at consulting firm Kearney, said during a press conference to unveil the report.

However, in the ongoing recovery, demand remains uneven, and traditional growth catalysts such as housing, inventory replenishment and trade flows have not led to a surge in freight activity, the 2026 Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals State of Logistics Report found.

During the first four months of 2026, American Trucking Associations’ For-Hire Tonnage Index rose 2.6% compared with the same period in 2025.

The main reason for the upturn in rates is capacity exits, but ongoing uncertainty is also a factor.

“Today, the fog has become an operating environment. Geopolitical uncertainty, trade realignment, energy volatility, inflationary pressures and rapid technological change have combined to create a new era of persistent disruption,” said Korhan Acar, lead author on the study and a partner in the strategic operations practice of Kearney.

The report’s predecessor in 2025 described a fog of uncertainty descending on the freight market, with tariffs in particular negating an unshrouded view of the upcoming quarters for logistics executives whose businesses depend on clear-eyed planning.

While an upturn has emerged in the past 12 months, so, too, has a fractured truckload landscape, the report’s authors found.

“Truckload is no longer one national market, with pricing and capacity increasingly varying by region and by lane. Fuel inflation disproportionately impacted owner-operators and smaller fleets contributing to supply-side exits and the tighter capacity environment,” Acar said.

National averages still offer context, Acar and his colleagues at Kearney found, but operational reality increasingly is concealed.

Some lanes clear smoothly, while other freight corridors tighten sharply or command a premium in spite of unremarkable national demand or seasonal expectations.

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National averages still offer context, but operational reality increasingly is concealed. (grandriver/Getty Images)

ACT Research noted at the end of May that dry van demand remains uneven, and cost pressure is still limiting fleet expansion. The market would seem to be progressing through the early stages of the upturn, it added.

As a result, the study found shippers should preserve longer-term contracts where possible, especially on strategic lanes where continuity, service and capacity assurance matter.

Another factor to absorb, the study authors found, is that partial truckload is becoming more relevant in the space between less-than-truckload and full truckload.

Partial truckload typically accounts for shipments weighing between 5,000 pounds and 27,000 pounds or spanning between six and 18 pallets.

This freight segment can cut shippers’ payments for unused trailer capacity and at the same time avoid some of the handling complexity associated with LTL.

The report authors said it works best when carriers or brokers can combine compatible freight, build efficient pickup and delivery sequences, preserve service commitments, and, as a result, control costs without sacrificing reliability.

In addition, the authors warned that 2026 will not reward broad market assumptions. Carriers must avoid mistaking a supply reset for a demand boom, and shippers cannot assume that national freight indicator softness guarantees easy capacity, they added.