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Shipowners weigh Hormuz risks as U.S.-Iran deal crumbles
Sinokor has been a key player since the conflict began
Key Takeaways:
- Shipowners showed mixed willingness to transit the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump said the U.S. ceasefire with Iran was over on July 8.
- The uncertainty matters because tanker availability and security risks could disrupt crude flows and push shipping costs, with earnings exceeding $340,000 a day.
- Future oil flows will depend on key tanker operators’ decisions and evolving security conditions as U.S. strikes and potential escalation with Iran continue.
Shipowners painted a mixed picture of their willingness to continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the hours after President Donald Trump said the U.S. ceasefire with Iran is “over.”
Of five owners surveyed by Bloomberg, whose vessels have crossed the vital conduit for energy flows in recent weeks, three said they were assessing whether it’s still safe to transit, while two said they hadn’t yet changed their policies.
When it comes to oil flows, much will depend on the approach of Sinokor Group, the world’s largest owner of supertankers and a key player in Hormuz traffic since the conflict began. One of the company’s vessels was attacked on July 7 and three shipbrokers who deal with the firm said they hadn’t been updated on its current position on transiting.
The risk of a return to all-out war appeared to be rising on July 8, with Trump warning that the U.S. would probably launch further strikes on Iran and could resume a blockade on the country’s ports.
In these circumstances, how much crude continues flowing out of the waterway, and the resulting impact on global oil prices, may come down to the decisions of the narrow cadre of shipowners that have been willing to enter Hormuz.
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Two owners that have previously sent ships into Hormuz showed some willingness to continue. Their vessels passed through the waterway under cover of darkness in the hours after the U.S. resumed strikes on Iran, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Visible traffic on July 8 was muted on the Omani side of Hormuz — a shipping corridor that has become the primary alternative to Iranian-controlled waters. Amid the heightened tensions, ships may be more likely to make the transit without broadcasting their locations. The tendency of some tankers to exit the Persian Gulf in convoy formations has also made daily totals volatile.
Benchmark tanker earnings, which reflect the cost of entering the Persian Gulf, rose to more than $340,000 a day on July 8, $50,000 higher than the end of last week. The marker has been highly illiquid since the Iran war began and is prone to large swings.
Higher shipping costs will be a fresh headache for Gulf producers who were already grappling with a lack of vessels willing to enter Hormuz. Last month, Iraq had to reduce output at some fields because it was unable to find enough ships to load its cargoes.
Written by Alex Longley, Grant Smith and Jack Wittels
