LTL Rebound to Kick Off in 2026, but Uncertainty Remains

(Estes Express Lines)

The less-than-truckload market segment of the North American freight market is set to rebound in 2026, although when the up cycle will kick off remains a vexing question, carrier executives told Transport Topics.

2025 was disappointing, the executives say, after optimism grew toward the end of 2024.

“How many times can people say six months from now? At some point, you’ve cried wolf too many times, right?” said Estes Express Lines President and Chief Operating Officer Webb Estes, noting it was tricky to know what to believe.

“I probably lean on the side that I think ’26 is going to be better than ’25. I think we have entered a bottom. Not to say there can never be a lower bottom, but it does feel to me like we’ve entered a bottom,” Estes said.

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Estes 

“And I say that because, one: We have elections coming next year and typically, a government is interested in making the economy as strong as possible coming into an election cycle,” he said. “So I think there’s an incentive to do what it takes to make that happen.”

Growing clarity about the tariff landscape, plus expectations of One, Big Beautiful Bill Act-related economic stimuli, also could boost the freight market, said Estes, likening the 2026 impact of promises from President Donald Trump to the boost COVID-era tax rebates offered.

Estes Express ranks No. 8 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America and No. 3 among LTL carriers.

“Uncertainty” was the word for many observers in 2025. And uncertainty will continue to prevail, observers say, but there are some glimmers of light indicating the end of the tunnel is nearing.

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Williams 

“There are no specific indicators signaling a near-term rebound for LTL, and while a recovery is expected, the timing remains uncertain,” Kent Williams, executive vice president of sales and marketing at Averitt Express, told TT.

Averitt ranks No. 29 on the for-hire TT100 and No. 12 on the LTL sector list. The carrier also ranks No. 100 on the TT Top 100 logistics companies list.

“However, data from the truckload sector suggests a rebound is underway, with rising tender rejection rates and higher spot market rates indicating tightening capacity, driven in part by efforts to remove illegal CDL holders from the market,” Williams said.

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Faghri 

In addition, Ali Faghri, XPO chief strategy officer, noted in an email to TT earlier in December: “Interest rates have come down from their recent highs, and most forecasts point to that easing cycle continuing next year. Lower borrowing costs tend to support capital investment, industrial activity and consumer spending — all of which drive freight demand. A steady move toward lower interest rates would be a positive tailwind for the LTL market.

“Consumer sentiment also improved in early December, and retail sales have remained relatively resilient in recent months. If those trends continue, we could see increased shipment activity from customers in consumer and lifestyle goods.”

XPO ranks No. 5 on the for-hire TT100.

The University of Michigan’s December consumer sentiment index rose 1.9 points to 52.9.

Stimuli?

Faghri agrees with Estes about the potential for positive stimuli too.

“On the legislative front, the passage of the One, Big Beautiful Bill Act is also expected to positively impact freight shipping and the broader industrial economy. A key component of the law is the permanent reinstatement of 100% bonus depreciation, which incentivizes companies to accelerate capital expenditures and purchase more equipment,” he said.

A decrease in capacity due to government initiatives also is expected to help.

In recent months, the Trump administration launched crackdowns on English-language proficiency, non-domiciled commercial driver licenses and noncompliant electronic logging devices. The Department of Homeland Security also conducted workplace audits on some carriers in California.

“We are optimistic [about LTL rates]. Truckload and drayage rates have already begun to improve, and LTL rates have stabilized. As a result, we believe both pricing and volumes will trend upward in 2026,” Williams said.

Spot prices are already on the up, although contract prices typically lag six months behind.

Logistics Managers’ Index Future Transportation Prices data shows logistics professionals also expect their costs, and therefore rates, to expand significantly in 2026.

Less Capacity

In addition, “capacity in the industry is down compared to pre-pandemic levels, with fewer terminals and fewer doors in service overall. This will lead to a capacity shortage when the market rebounds,” Faghri said.

When the rebound will begin is still up for debate, but the signs are growing that the approach is accelerating.

“There was a time where people would say, ‘Hey, it’s going to be six months from now.’ And the question was ‘why?’ And the answer didn’t feel very good. The why felt more like a dream more than concrete things,” said Estes.

“But I would say there’s a few categories of things that would contribute to a boom in the economy and specifically to the goods economy,” he said. “And, so, I’m hopeful that we see some of those things play out next year.”

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