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Strategist sees ‘extremely high’ risk of $5 gas by November
Diesel could reach $7 to $9 a gallon, Jeff Currie says
Jeff Currie in London in May. (Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg)
Key Takeaways:
- Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie said Sept. 11 that U.S. gasoline prices are highly likely to reach $5 a gallon before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
- Currie attributed rising fuel prices to shortages spreading from refined products to crude oil, SPR releases ending and market concerns over sustained supply disruptions.
- Currie said diesel could reach $7 to $9 a gallon and warned simultaneous gains across the oil complex signal a more structural shortage.
Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie said average U.S. gasoline prices will almost certainly hit $5 a gallon before the midterm elections, citing a toxic combination of scarcity and currency debasement.
Shortages that began in refined products are now spreading upstream into crude oil as the energy shock reaches a dangerous new phase, according to Currie, the founder and CEO of Real Macro, who built his name on Wall Street at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“Crude is the signal, and now we think about products — they are the noise,” Currie said Sept. 11 in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s "Surveillance."
Gasoline at $5 a gallon is an important psychological marker, especially with control of Congress hanging in the balance in the Nov. 3 midterm balloting. Prices at retail pumps haven’t topped that level since the jump in post-pandemic inflation in 2022, but the recent flare-up in the U.S.-Iran war pushed the average to more than $4.29 a gallon as of Sept. 10. Diesel topped $6 a gallon for the first time.
Currie put the probability of $5 gas by Election Day as “extremely high,” warning that refineries cycling between diesel and gasoline output will eventually exhaust their operational flexibility. In addition, Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, which have helped bridge supply gaps, show no sign of being renewed, he said.
U.S. diesel could reach $7 to $9 a gallon, Currie said.
the rise in prices is not slowing down- national average price of gasoline continues to rise alongside diesel, which continues to climb further into record territory. LIVE GasBuddy data (not yesterday's data sold as today): pic.twitter.com/gYDvfejxCj
— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) September 11, 2026
Currie said the price moves on Sept. 10 — when Brent futures popped more than 8% at one point — signaled that markets are bracing for a larger and more-sustained disruptions. The entire forward curve moved, not just the front end, he said.
“You’re entering a really dangerous phase of this commodity rally because the shortages are so extreme on both sides that the whole complex moves,” Currie said.
That kind of simultaneous surge signals something more structural than a typical supply squeeze, he said. Currie said he had been unwilling to recommend going long on crude and short on products — a trade that would have backfired as both legs rallied together.
Written by Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern. This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
