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Cummins expects final EPA NOx rulemaking in December
Rumsey expects to sell more of Cummins’ current engines in 2027
Cummins’ North American 2026 medium-duty truck market sales forecast is now 125,000 to 130,000 units in 2026, compared with Q2 earnings guidance of 130,000 to 140,000 units. (Cummins Inc.)
Key Takeaways:
- Cummins expects EPA to finalize heavy-duty truck nitrogen oxide emissions rules in December, days before they take effect Jan. 1.
- Regulatory uncertainty dampened truck demand, prompting Cummins to lower its 2026 North American medium-duty sales forecast to 125,000 to 130,000 units.
- Cummins plans limited production of updated X10 and X15 engines in January while continuing current-product sales during the transition.
Cummins Inc. expects the Environmental Protection Agency to issue a final rulemaking on heavy-duty truck nitrogen oxide emissions in December, just days before the regulation is scheduled to become effective Jan. 1.
And uncertainty over the release of the fine print of the regulation put a damper on sales and orders of Class 8 and medium-duty trucks over the past couple of months, Cummins CEO Jennifer Rumsey acknowledged during the engine maker’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call Nov. 5.
Cummins’ North American 2026 medium-duty truck market sales forecast is now 125,000 to 130,000 units in 2026, compared with Q2 earnings guidance of 130,000 to 140,000 units as a result of the uncertainty.
The company’s North American 2026 heavy-duty truck demand forecast remains 240,000 to 250,000 units after a stronger quarter for the largest trucks on the road due to a rebound in the freight market.
Cummins was the first engine maker to promise to stagger the introduction of engines that met the stiffer NOx standards after EPA provided the opportunity for that flexibility in July.
Columbus, Ind.-based Cummins said July 23 that it would continue manufacturing existing versions of the X15 and X10 engines many truck makers offer for larger trucks and tractors after analyzing the draft notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM).
The NPRM kept a Biden-era requirement that NOx emissions for heavy-duty trucks fall to 35 milligrams per horsepower-hour from 200 mg/hp-hr, but manufacturers were offered wiggle room on implementation, noncompliance penalties (NCPs) and NOx credits.
EPA’s release of the final rule has been running behind schedule since Administrator Lee Zeldin announced in March 2025 that the 2022 Heavy-Duty Nitrogen Oxides rule would be re-evaluated, citing consumer choice and cost concerns.
RELATED: DTNA urges clarity from EPA on NOx 2027 standards
Carriers remain unclear on what the price of trucks will be, however, as final details on the sliding scale for the level of noncompliance have yet to be revealed. “We anticipate that NCPs will be included in the final rule. The question and what’s driving some underlying market uncertainty is will EPA change the [price] of those NCPs from the draft rule?” Rumsey told analysts.
Cummins’ top executive said the engine maker was working closely with truck makers on product availability and plans, and the company anticipates selling more of its current products in 2027 as the transition to EPA 2027-compliant engines accelerates.
The company expects to launch limited production of the updated X10 and X15 in January.
In the meantime, the company’s key Jamestown, N.Y., engine plant, where the X15 is built, is set to operate at capacity in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Cummins put industrywide production of heavy-duty trucks in Q3 at 70,000 units, up 62% year over year, while the company’s heavy-duty truck engine sales totaled 24,000, up 68% year over year.
Cummins Inc. Earnings Release Presentation (2025 Revision)
The company said industrywide production of medium-duty trucks was 36,000 units in Q3, a jump of 77% from 2025 levels, while Cummins’ engine sales in that market segment totaled 33,000, up 88% year over year.
And looking forward, said Rumsey, Cummins anticipates underlying demand will remain strong into 2027, although the uncertainty around where NCPs will be priced is causing some customers to wait.
Globally, Cummins sold 33,200 heavy-duty engines in Q3, a 48.2% jump compared with 22,400 in the year-ago period. Medium-duty sales climbed 35.8% year over year to 85,700 engines in the most recent quarter from 63,100 a year earlier.
“Global power generation and North America heavy-duty truck demand remain strong, and we expect fourth-quarter revenues to step up from third-quarter levels and set a new record,” Rumsey said in comments accompanying Cummins’ earnings.
Overall, Cummins posted net income of $1.14 billion in the most recent quarter, more than double the $536 million reported in the year-ago period. The company’s Q3 revenue totaled $9.44 billion, an increase of 13% from $8.32 billion in the same period 12 months earlier.
Cummins’ engine segment posted Q3 sales of $3.13 billion, an increase of 19.9% compared with $2.61 billion a year earlier. Sales would have been even higher but for North American pickup truck weakness, the company said.
