Bring On 2010
This Editorial appears in the Dec. 21 & 28 print edition of Transport Topics. Click here to subscribe today.
As this horrendous year finally winds to a close, the most recent economic news is notably better than what we’ve had to endure for nearly all of 2009. And because almost every economic forecast predicts at least a gradual recovery, 2010 can’t get here too soon.
During the week we were putting this edition to bed, new data were showing a clear uptick during November, as housing starts jumped 8.9%, the Leading Economic Index rose for the eighth straight month and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that manufacturing activity in that region rose to its highest level since 2005.
And the effects on trucking are clear. Spot market loads for the trucking industry were 65% higher in November than they were in the comparable month of 2008, according to data company TransCore. The company also reported that the ratio of available spot loads to trucks reached 2.5 loads per vehicle, 120% higher than it was in the 2008 month.
Many analysts believe that the spot market provides an advance look at how contract rates will move and that a tightening of spot truck availability means rates are bound to rise across the board.
That increase would be welcome news for fleets, which have had to limp along as too many trucks chased too few loads for well more than a year.
The news is still not all good, however, and some economists said they are worried about the fragility of the recovery, evidenced in the latest data and on Wall Street.
A rise in initial jobless claims, for instance, on Dec. 17 sent stocks down, as employment — or, more accurately, lack of it — continued to worry forecasters. Until job growth resumes, they warn, consumers are likely to keep their spending down, worried that their own jobs may be in jeopardy.
Let us all hope that 2010 brings with it a brighter outlook and a true, sustained economic recovery. What we really need to see is some real job growth, not just another decline in the rate of jobs lost.
When those new workers spend their paychecks, freight levels will return to normal levels. Then, we can get back to worrying about other things, like the price of fuel or traffic jams that sap productivity.
Happy holidays to all.
