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U.S. raises forecasts for 2027 gasoline and diesel prices
EIA projects diesel will cost $5.03 a gallon, gasoline $3.73
A vehicle is refueled at a Sheetz gas station in Lexington, N.C. (Al Drago/Bloomberg)
Key Takeaways:
- The U.S. raised its 2027 gasoline forecast to $3.73 a gallon and diesel forecast to $5.03 in its Nov. 5 outlook.
- The EIA cited tight global fuel supplies after the U.S.-Iran conflict and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries drove energy prices higher.
- EIA expects Brent crude to average $104 a barrel in November, $99 in December and $86 in 2027.
The U.S. raised its projections for the price of diesel and gasoline next year, indicating that consumer relief will be limited even as oil flows pick up from the Middle East.
The Energy Information Administration increased its projected retail price of gasoline in 2027 to an average of $3.73 a gallon, up from $3.56 a gallon seen in October, citing expectations for persistent tightness in global fuel supplies. It also hiked its expected price of diesel next year to $5.03 a gallon, up from $4.49 a gallon.
The forecast, included in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, was completed Nov. 5.
Energy prices soared as a result of the U.S.-Iran conflict, and were further exacerbated by continued Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. The soaring cost of gasoline and diesel played a central role in driving discontent with President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, leading in part to a historic Democratic sweep of last week’s midterm elections.
To be sure, retail fuel prices have since eased as traders boost bets on a resolution to the Iran conflict, and U.S. gasoline prices dipped below $4 a gallon on Nov. 9 for the first time since July, according to AAA. Gas prices typically fall headed into the winter.
Still, the projected prices are considerably above their 2025 levels, indicating that a return to normalcy in energy markets may yet be distant.
live national average this morning $3.967/gal according to GasBuddy, diesel at $6.157/gal, gasoline falling at a pace of 1-3c/gal per day, which is about as quickly as the national average moves, diesel falling 1-2c/day. under $6 around Thanksgiving as prev mentioned.
— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) November 10, 2026
Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $104 a barrel in November and $99 a barrel in December. They’re seen at $86 a barrel in 2027. Brent is currently trading near $92 a barrel.
The agency also hiked its expectations for natural gas in U.S. storage at the end of November, owing to a warm start to the month.
