Trucking Technology Report - Nov. 21
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Both the online report and e-mail are sponsored by @Track Communications, a supplier of wireless communications and dispatch services.
Today's Technology Headlines:
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E-tailers, Package Carriers Hope for Many Happy Returns
Holiday e-tail sales should increase by 170% this year to $9 billion, according to the Yankee Group. According to Jeffrey Rogers of ReturnBuy.com, increased sales means an increase in returns, which could amount to a $100 billion annual market.
United Parcel Service (UPS) has also joined the new returns management arena with a Web-based system that allows customers to view their buyer profile, select the item they want to return, print return labels and return instructions from their own computer, and specify the reason for returning the selected item. Returns from the UPS system will be routed according to the reason for return.
Returnbuy.com has a similar system to that of UPS, but it will also list returned items on eBay (EBAY) or Yahoo (YHOO) to be resold and provide payment to both the retailers and shoppers. Supply Chain Technology News (11/00) Vol. 2, No. 11, P. 1; Kuhel, Jennifer S.
Experts Say Some Satellite Communications Ventures May Falter
Independent consultant Doug Mohney says Teledesic's proposal to launch a network of 288 LEO satellites could be the latest disaster for the satellite industry, if current trends continue. The proposed system, which is scheduled to be launched in 2004, is expected to offer speeds of 64 Kbps to 2 Mbps, says Mohney. The company is backed by some notable business personalities, including Bill Gates and Craig McCaw, in addition to major corporations Boeing (A) and Motorola (MOT). The price to implement the LEO system is estimated to range from $6 billion to $10 billion per year.
But Mohney says satellite companies that have launched or plan to launch LEO systems for broadband services are in dangerous financial straits. For instance, Orbcomm's satellite system for data and text messaging was launched on a wide scale near the end of 1998. But revenues gained from subscribers were unable to compensate for mounting expenses, and the company was forced to declare bankruptcy this summer, Mohney adds.
Teledesic has 12 medium Earth orbiting (MEO) satellites available. The company was able to purchase the system from ICO, which had to declare bankruptcy, for $1.2 billion. Satellite Broadband (11/00) Vol. 1, No. 3, P. 68; Mohney, Doug
Despite Increasing Revenues, Packetized Voice Lags Behind Circuit-Switched Telephony
Although the North American packet telephony market is expected to generate revenues of nearly $34 billion by 2004, the market will make up a mere 10% of total North American voice revenue, a report by Insight Research says.Digital packet-based technology will eventually displace circuit-switched technology, according to Insight analysts. But such a development does not suggest that carriers will throw away their billion-dollar investments on the circuit-switched equipment that offers the quality of service with which customers are familiar.
Some of the factors impacting the proliferation of packet telephony include lower costs, new standards for easier deployment, and advanced technology. Packet telephony technologies, which include VoIP, voice over frame relay, voice over ATM, and voice over DSL, will grab a larger share of the telecom market in the next five years. The market is set to grow, from $870 million last year to $98.7 billion by 2004. Lightwave (11/00) Vol. 17, No. 12, P. 206
GlobalNetXchange Marketplace Built for Retailers and Suppliers Everywhere
An electronic marketplace for retailers and suppliers around the world called GlobalNetXchange was recently set up.According to Jeremy Hollows, director of information systems at Carrefour, the world's second-largest grocer, which was also one of the founding members of the exchange, the GNX framework of products and services has five main components, including functioning as a business-to-business transaction hub, and providing tools to use the exchange as an electronic marketplace.
One challenge facing online exchanges is gaining the critical mass of transaction traffic necessary to become viable, and to achieve this aim, Hollows said, the GNX members have promised to commit 75% of their trading volumes to the exchange. The immediate objective is to have approximately $200 billion worth of business carried out on the exchange every year, which Hollows estimated would amount to approximately 6% of worldwide retail buying.
A for-profit company with an independent management team currently operates the exchange, which is open to all suppliers, wholesalers, and retailers.
For Local Phone Users, Choice Isn't an Option
AT&T's (T) proposed four-way split has sparked concern among some experts, who believe national competition in the local phone market could be hurt. Although an agreement was reached in the telecom industry four years ago to spur competition, a mere 3% of residential and small-business phone lines receive service from a rival to the incumbent local phone company, according to a preliminary report by the FCC. Some telecom experts believe a maximum of one in 10 households have a choice.AT&T officials promise the companies resulting from its split will continue competing against incumbent local tells. But analysts believe such a move is improbable and that any retreat in AT&T's efforts in the local phone market would not be surprising considering the number of disappointments consumers have had to face in the local phone market.
While the Telecom Act of 1996 was intended to spur competition, the regional Bells seemed to favor consolidation over competition, and the majority of upstart local telcos opted to concentrate on corporate subscribers rather than residential customers. New York Times (11/21/00) P. A1; Schiesel, Seth
Fixed-Wireless Systems Fly Free of Wired Rivals
Telecom providers such as SBC Communications (SBC) and Verizon Communications (VZ) are reaping profits by leasing their phone lines to competitors. But fixed-wireless may give rivals the ability to provide services without having to arrange such deals.Fixed-wireless technology employs rooftop antennas to deliver voice and data to customers. The technology has yet to gain a substantial share of the telecom market, but industry experts expect its appeal to increase as improvements are made to the system. Dallas, Tex., is one of the nation's leading markets for the technology.
Dallas is home to several companies that offer fixed-wireless services. The technology, which is less expensive to deploy than competing fiber-based technologies, is available as point-to-point and point-to-multipoint systems. Either system can be deployed to provide services to residential users and small businesses.
While the majority of fixed-wireless services in Dallas are directed at small businesses, WorldCom plans to introduce its services to residential users during the second quarter of next year. Dallas Morning News Online (11/21/00); Bajaj, Vikas
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