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US Trailer Orders Defy Seasonal Slowdown With March Gain
ACT Research Data Shows Sequential Increase Despite Typical Spring Weakness
| Updated:
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. trailer orders totaled 18,800 units, down 14% from a year earlier but up 42% from February.
- ACT Research said the usual seasonal slowdown appears delayed after order gains arrived later than expected.
- Concerns persist about how quickly manufacturers can reduce thin backlogs during the weaker part of the cycle.
U.S. trailer orders showed a sequential gain that defied seasonal expectations, given the historically expected slowdown that starts around March.
ACT Research reported preliminary net data showed orders decreased 14% year over year to 18,800 units but were 42% above February’s level.
The report noted a sequential drop in net orders is typical as the annual order cycle enters its weakest months. This time, the cycle seems delayed a few months.
“The order upticks that should have started in September or October of last year didn’t actually happen until December,” said Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research for ACT Research. “Regardless of the timing, we have entered the period of the year in which trailer makers typically receive fewer orders and start to work down the backlog that grew during peak season.”
McNealy questioned whether there will be more surprisingly good order-intake months instead of the traditional second-quarter weakness, given accelerating freight rates and rising carrier confidence. The seasonally adjusted volume at this point in the annual order cycle lowers the tally only slightly to 18,700 units. The report described the decline as incremental.
McNealy said concerns are growing about how quickly trailer manufacturers can work down an already thin backlog as the industry enters its seasonal slowdown. She pointed to uncertainty around freight-generating sectors of the economy and elevated petroleum prices, which continue to weigh on purchasing decisions for fleets and consumers.
[April State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers Update] - Trailer Industry Still Mired in Challenging Market Environment
Read more from the update here: https://t.co/BLXvF6WWmK pic.twitter.com/9eRbONuMP3 — ACT Research (@actresearch) April 21, 2026
“The question is how quickly that backlog erodes given the broader demand backdrop,” she said.
FTR Transportation Intelligence reported stronger-than expected U.S. trailer demand in March. Preliminary results found orders decreased 15% year over year to 18,045 units, below the 10-year average of 20,276 units for the month.
Still, the results were 36% higher than in February, which the report characterized as surprising.
“Despite the healthy increase in orders, trailer demand remains largely replacement driven as fleets still have excess trailer capacity,” said Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst of commercial vehicles. “In contrast, Class 8 demand has strengthened meaningfully, supported by improving asset utilization, firmer rate expectations and better visibility.”
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Moyer
Moyer pointed to tariff-adjusted pricing and upcoming truck emissions regulations as two major areas in which clarity has improved. President Donald Trump has heavily leveraged tariffs to rework international trade, and his administration has scrutinized upcoming emissions regulations for heavy-duty vehicles expected for 2027.
“All of which combine to drive an early-cycle recovery in orders,” Moyer said. “As a result, fleet capital allocation is increasingly shifting toward power units aligned with forward-looking needs, leaving trailers relatively deprioritized despite improved freight market conditions.”
Trump on April 2 signed a proclamation to increase tariffs imposed on imported steel, aluminum and copper. This resulted in a 50% tariff on products that are made entirely or almost entirely of those metals, and a 25% tariff on derivative articles substantially made of those metals, plus lower tariffs for other mixes.
“Meanwhile, the U.S. trailer market continues to face persistent headwinds,” Moyer said. “Elevated steel and aluminum costs, ongoing trade uncertainty, high financing costs and constrained capital spending are limiting incremental demand and keeping orders subdued.”
