Tesla Projected to Remain No. 1 EV Seller Through 2026

Car Wars Report No Longer Sees Ford, GM Vaulting Ahead
A Tesla dealer
Cars at a Tesla dealership in Austin, Texas. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

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Tesla Inc. is poised to remain the top seller of electric vehicles in the U.S. through at least 2026 as it benefits from renewed sales momentum sparked by a recent discounting binge, according to a new report.

The automaker’s models should account for 18% of the domestic EV market that year, BofA Securities analyst John Murphy predicted in his annual Car Wars report. That will leave General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. to fight for second place, with about 14% share each, followed by Stellantis NV at 8%.

The forecast marks a shift after Murphy said last year that Tesla was likely to be overtaken by Ford and GM in 2025. The landscape has changed due to Tesla’s price cuts, the latest report said. Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has been willing to take lower profits as he reduces prices to keep market share.

With affordability an increasingly important factor in wider EV adoption, Tesla is in line to protect its market-leading position through additional price reductions and new models. The report predicts the company will launch a new, low-priced vehicle in 2026 and a revamped Model 3 the following year.

“Elon cut prices much more than we thought he would,” Murphy said. “The model that will be everyday man’s EV doesn’t come out until 2026. Before that lower-priced vehicle comes out, if he wants to grow he has to keep taking price points down.”

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