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SMBs optimistic for rest of 2026 in boon for trucking
DHL survey finds most small businesses met or topped 2026 goals through the first half
Key Takeaways:
- A DHL Express U.S. survey found most SMBs met or exceeded 2026 expectations, signaling support for trucking margins, especially LTL carriers.
- The survey said 38% outperformed first-half plans, 36% met forecasts and 85% were confident about meeting goals for the rest of 2026.
- Trade and fuel uncertainty remain, with U.S.-Mexico negotiations set to resume the week of July 20 and Canada not formally involved.
A majority of small- and medium-sized businesses are meeting expectations or performing better than expected in 2026, a development that bodes well for trucking companies’ margins, especially less-than-truckload carriers.
Owners and decision-makers at SMBs are also optimistic about the prospects for the rest of 2026, according to a recent survey, a stance likely to extend the ongoing freight market recovery.
SMBs are typically a priority target for carriers due to the higher margins available.
FedEx Freight — the largest LTL carrier in North America, which debuted at No. 4 in the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers after its June 1 initial public offering — is targeting SMBs in the $9 billion LTL market segment.
TFI International, meanwhile, saw a turnaround in the fortunes of its TForce Freight unit over the past 18 months after targeting a higher SMB market share as part of a revamp of the LTL division. TFI ranks No. 6 on the for-hire TT100 and No. 8 among LTL carriers.
More than a third of the SMBs responding to the DHL Express U.S. survey said they had outperformed their 2026 plans through the first half of the year.
Some 14% said they were “far exceeding expectations,” and 24% were “slightly exceeding” them. A further 36% responded that they were meeting forecasts.
Optimism is high for the rest of 2026, with 85% of SMB executives expressing confidence about meeting goals for the remainder of 2026 and 31% indicating they were very confident of doing so.
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector is underpinning that optimism, with the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI Report showing a sixth consecutive expansion in June. The overall economy continued to expand for the 20th month in a row.
This optimism bodes well for the U.S. economy given increased cost inflation, fuel price sticker shock and ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on supply chains.
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(Daniel Acker/Bloomberg)
“One of the most striking findings from our Mid-Year 2026 SME Survey is just how optimistic U.S. small- and medium-sized businesses are right now, which is not something you’d necessarily expect given the environment,” DHL Express U.S. CEO Greg Hewitt said in comments released alongside the survey of small- to medium-sized business executives (SMEs).
Tariffs instituted by the Trump administration and apprehension about a mercurial attitude toward trade policy delayed the expected 2025 recovery in the freight market.
“Nearly eight in 10 SMEs tell us tariffs and trade restrictions have pushed their costs higher, and two-thirds have already passed some of that on to customers,” Hewitt said. “The margin squeeze is forcing businesses to make sharper decisions about where and how they grow internationally; they’re not abandoning global ambition but recalibrating it.”
Among businesses affected by tariffs, 66% have increased prices to offset higher costs, according to the survey.
Further uncertainty awaits, however, after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the United States would not renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade pact.
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(Rod Lamkey Jr./Associated Press)
USMCA offered trade stability with America’s largest two trading partners for the past six years, boosting cross-border trucking activity, including in the LTL segment.
The first bilateral round of review negotiations between the United States and Mexico took place during the week of May 25 in Mexico City. The U.S. and Mexico are scheduled to meet in the week of July 20 for a third round of bilateral negotiations, according to Greer’s office.
Canada has not yet been formally involved in the negotiations.
Meanwhile, diesel prices remain a concern for SMBs and carriers alike, with an average nationwide price at the pump on June 29 of $4.668 a gallon. The average price across the nation at the start of the year was $3.477 a gallon and reached a high of $5.639 a gallon in May on uncertainty over the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran and its repercussions.
DHL Express U.S. surveyed more than 400 SME decision-makers across a variety of industries for the study.
