Effects of Iran War Rattle Outlook for Ports

Containerships at the Port of Los Angeles. March container volume for the port was down 3% year over year. (Eric Thayer/Bloomberg)

The largest U.S. ports said rising global supply chain uncertainty is affecting the flow of goods into the country, complicating forecasting and comparisons with year-ago activity.

“The world looks different than it did just a month ago,” Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said during a virtual news conference. “Developments in the Middle East are rippling across global trade, affecting risk costs and cargo flows.”

The conflict involving Iran has been central to those concerns. President Donald Trump launched an attack on the country at a time when his tariff policies were already contributing to market uncertainty. Seroka said port officials are working to stay ahead of developments so that they are better prepared to respond, particularly as trade policy and geopolitical conditions remain unsettled.

The Port of Los Angeles processed 752,520 20-foot equivalent units in March, a 3% decrease from the 778,403 TEUs reported in March 2025.

That decline follows a period of cargo front-loading last year as shippers sought to stay ahead of tariffs. Port data also showed an uptick in activity during the final two months of the first quarter, though officials remain cautious given the potential for further global disruptions.

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Seroka 

“Just last night I was touching base with a myriad of overseas ports across the Pacific Rim, trying to gauge how their volume flows are, how much cargo is sitting on port docks,” Seroka said.

Tariffs have been a cornerstone of Trump’s agenda to reshape international trade, but the approach — along with ongoing legal challenges — has added to economic uncertainty. The Supreme Court in February ruled against his effort to enact tariffs through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, though he has relied on other authorities to pursue tariffs.

“There’s a lot that remains up in the air when it comes to tariffs,” Seroka said. “Retailers are wondering what comes next in terms of purchasing because at the heart of all of this is the American consumer. We saw inflation jump almost a full percentage point in March, and consumer sentiment is reported at a record low.”

At the neighboring Port of Long Beach, container volume declined 5.2% in March to 774,935 from 817,457 a year earlier. The prior year, however, marked a record for cargo moves at the port. Long Beach also narrowly handled the most container volume of any U.S. port in the first quarter, totaling 2,390,225 TEUs, though officials cautioned that the figures reflect extraordinary global conditions.

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The Port of Long Beach handled 2,390,225 TEUs in the first quarter, the most of any U.S. port. (Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg)

“These levels of cargo are due to the war and the disruption that it brings,” Long Beach CEO Noel Hacegaba said during a virtual news conference. “This is still about policy and market timing. With the conflict in the Middle East unresolved, what does the future hold for our cargo volumes?”

Hacegaba said the conflict has not directly affected port operations and that all terminals remain open. He added, however, that the war continues to inject uncertainty into global supply chains, particularly as vessels reroute to avoid conflict zones, driving up costs and transit times. He also pointed to rising fuel costs linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Hacegaba 

“When ships are being rerouted to avoid conflict zones, it sets off a chain reaction,” Hacegaba said. “The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world’s oil, and it’s basically closed. The price of oil already hit $100 a barrel for the first time in four years, and it’s still hovering this week at nearly $100. Here in Los Angeles County, we’re seeing gas prices rise to $6 a gallon, and history tells us prices go up fast, but they come down slowly.”

Descartes Systems Group reported in its monthly global shipping update that U.S. container import volume increased 12.4% sequentially to 2,353,611 TEUs in March. The firm also found that East and Gulf Coast ports collectively captured more market share than West Coast ports for the first time since May 2025 while echoing concerns about geopolitical and tariff-related disruptions.

“While March import volumes remain near historically high levels and port operations continue to perform efficiently, escalating tensions in the Middle East, evolving U.S. tariff policy and shifting global trade dynamics are increasing volatility around routing, costs and sourcing decisions,” said Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy at Descartes.

Other major U.S. ports also reported year-over-year declines in container volume for March:

• The Port of Oakland reported container volume decreased 8.6% to 198,667 from 217,415, though it recorded a sequential rebound amid an increase in vessel calls.
• The Northwest Seaport Alliance reported a 10.1% decline to 278,829 containers from 309,993.
• The South Carolina Ports Authority reported volume fell 9.2% to 218,673 containers from 240,857.
• Port Houston reported a 1% increase to 391,037 containers from 386,864.
• The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey did not have monthly volume data available at press time.