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February 28, 2018 11:00 AM, EST

Pending Home Sales Gauge Falls to Lowest Since 2014

Ron Antonelli/Bloomberg News

A gauge of contracts to purchase previously-owned U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in January to a more than three-year low, reflecting a shortage of inventories and rising mortgage rates, according to data released Feb. 28 from the National Association of Realtors in Washington.

Highlights of Pending Home Sales for January

• Index dropped 4.7% month over month (estimated 0.5% gain) to 104.6, lowest since Oct. 2014, after no change (revised from 0.5% gain)

• Gauge fell 1.7% year over year on an unadjusted basis after 1.8% year over year drop in December.

• NAR reduced 2018 home-sales forecast to 5.5 million from an actual 5.51 million in 2017; previously projected an increase.

Key Takeaways

The Realtors’ latest forecast for a decline in home sales this year would be the first annual decrease since 2014. The property market is settling into a cooler pace as there aren’t enough affordable listings to choose from. Rising property prices remain a hurdle, and prospective buyers also are facing an acceleration in mortgage costs.

RELATED: Sales of new homes fall to lowest level since August

Until institutional investors begin to put their portfolio of homes up for sale and more hesitant homeowners decide to sell, the housing market will remain tight, the NAR said in a statement.

The lack of adequate, affordable properties for sale also weighed last month on existing-home sales, which unexpectedly fell in January to a four-month low. Nonetheless, a solid job market is expected to continue providing support to the housing recovery.

Official’s Views

“There’s little doubt last month’s retreat in contract signings occurred because of woefully low supply levels and the sudden increase in mortgage rates,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement. “With the cost of buying a home getting more expensive and not enough inventory, some prospective buyers are either waiting until listings increase come spring or now having to delay their search entirely to save up for a larger down payment.”

Other Details

• Purchases fell 9% in the Northeast, 6.6% in the Midwest, 3.9% in the South and 1.2% in the West.

• Economists consider pending sales a leading indicator because they track contract signings; purchases of existing homes are tabulated when a deal closes, typically a month or two later.

With assistance by Jordan Yadoo