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Goldman sees gas-price blowback if U.S. bans diesel exports
Ban could rapidly fill domestic storage and ultimately shrink gas supply
(David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)
Key Takeaways:
- Goldman Sachs said a U.S. diesel export ban would lower diesel prices initially but reduce refinery output and constrain gasoline supply.
- Diesel prices averaged $6.52 per gallon Sept. 22 after a 74% surge since the Iran war began, raising costs across the economy.
- Trump backed studying export limits as advisers debate options including bans or quotas and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reviews the proposal.
A U.S. ban on diesel exports would rapidly fill domestic storage, depress the fuel’s prices and ultimately shrink gasoline supply while pushing up costs at the pump, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s co-head of global commodities research.
“All the things equal, lower diesel prices would incentivize refiners to reduce their production,” Goldman’s Daan Struyven said Sept. 23 in a Bloomberg Television interview. “And because gasoline and diesel are usually produced together as a bundle with some flexibility, it would likely reduce the availability of gasoline.”
READ MORE: Trump’s fuel export ban threat sends European diesel soaring
Struyven spoke a day after President Donald Trump signaled support for curbing exports of diesel fuel to rein in the price spiral that has sent costs to a record. While Trump has denied any linkage between domestic considerations and the war in Iran, he faces demands for relief from Republican lawmakers ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections and told reporters “I’ve said, ‘let’s not send out the diesel.’ ”
Trump’s comments on Sept. 22 underscored an ongoing debate within his administration over the costs and benefits of new limits. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright have argued against an export ban, with Wright — a former energy industry executive — emphasizing the U.S. is focused on growing supply rather than curtailing foreign sales.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s willingness to study the measure “seems appropriate,” Struyven said.
Trump on banning diesel exports: I've called for that too. I've said let's not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel. That could have a little bit of an effect on regular automobile gasoline because when you do that, you know, it's a sort of a flow, it's a balance, but no,… pic.twitter.com/Lvuo67f48J
— Acyn (@Acyn) September 22, 2026
“These are pretty complicated policies,” Struyven said. “It’s very important to think about, you know, do you do it across products? Do you do a ban or a quota? What’s the horizon? Do you combine it with other measures incentivizing refiners to keep producing?”
Diesel’s average price at U.S. pumps on Sept. 22 was $6.52 a gallon. Futures for the fuel, however, have come under pressure as speculation mounts over a potential export ban.
The fuel’s 74% surge since Feb. 27, the eve of the Iran war, outstrips the 50% run-up in U.S. retail gasoline, based on average prices compiled by the American Automobile Association. And because of diesel’s importance for freight railroads and commercial vehicles, those costs ripple throughout the U.S. economy.
Written by Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern. This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
