BALTIMORE — The rise of online logistics services, driven by business-to-consumer electronic commerce, is headed for an inevitable plateau and probable shake-out, according to the chief information officer of Roadway Express.
Addressing the fall meeting of the National Small Shipments Traffic Conference, Richard W. Obee cited a study by Forrester Research suggesting consumer purchases via the Internet will continue to rise sharply through 2004, increasing in value from $39 billion this year to an estimated $184 billion four years from now.
After that, though, Forrester believes there will be a peak in electronic commerce before things settle into a healthy but less-dramatic rate of growth. The peak would bring two events, Obee said. The first would be a shake-out in the number of Web-based companies, followed by a “plateau of profitability” for the survivors.
In his own business, Obee said Roadway is faced with about 105 dot.com ventures, each claiming to be “your one-stop transportation shop.” He said that it is highly improbable that all 105 claims can be fulfilled.
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