Freight Tonnage Slows as Tighter Capacity Drives May Market

Tonnage during the first five months was up 2% compared with 2025. (Jenny Kane/Associated Press)

Freight tonnage continued to slow in May after a strong start to the year, but tighter capacity helped give the market some lift despite softer volumes.

The ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index contracted 2% from the previous month to 114.4. The reading was 0.6% above the number reported in May 2025.

The report highlighted that tonnage was up 4.7% during the first three months of the year but slipped 2.9% the past two months. Tonnage during the first five months was up 2% compared with 2025.

“Despite the recent decreases, the index increased from year-earlier levels for the sixth straight month,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said, “which is pretty good considering the bulk of freight drivers, like manufacturing and construction, remain lackluster.”

Mixed Signals

The Cass Freight Index reported that shipments increased 3% sequentially to 1.041 from 1.011 but came in 1.2% below the 1.054 reading last year. It was the smallest decline in about 18 months. The report highlighted that many spot indicators suggest improving freight demand, with certain sectors seeing growth.

The Logistics Managers’ Index, meanwhile, decreased 0.4 points from the previous month to 69.5 in May. The report noted that the rate of expansion was down from last month, but this was still the second-fastest level of growth since March 2022.

DAT Freight & Analytics reported truckload spot rates moved higher despite freight volumes declining in May. The increase came as several factors disrupted the supply of available trucks, including International Roadcheck week, Memorial Day weekend and ongoing driver enforcement. The DAT Truckload Volume Index fell sequentially across all three equipment types.

“May was, on the spot market, a month of records, but largely caused by Roadcheck week,” said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT. “Since then, dry vans and reefer have been relatively flat. So, the story is that we had record gains early in the month, and then we’ve held on to those gains all the way through here into the end of June.”

The Department of Transportation tightened regulations on non-domiciled commercial driver licenses and English-language proficiency standards for professional drivers. Croke suspects the resulting sensitivity to seasonal trends has helped rates since.

“What’s creating the lift is the normal seasonal post-Mother’s Day increase in produce all the way through to July 4, and the World Cup,” Croke said. “So, if capacity is exiting, and then you get this little bump in demand, which we always do, it’s maintained the rates that we saw.”

Déjà Vu

Croke views this rate trajectory as mirroring what was happening before the pandemic-era freight boom. He also has seen some recent improvements in contract flatbed and reefer rates based on earlier positive spot trends in December 2025.

“The U.S. economy has handled the shock of high gasoline and high diesel prices much better than what people were expecting three months ago,” said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University. “The consumer has been spending reasonably, it hasn’t pulled back, and one of the reasons that helped was the tax refunds.”

Dhawan credited recent changes in the tax law for helping to bolster refunds this year. Consumer spending was further supported by the stock market recovering some earlier losses in the past few months.

“Going forward, the spending power of the consumer depends upon the firepower of their portfolio,” Dhawan said. “The mood, on the other hand, is a separate issue.”

Consumer Complications

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index reached an all-time low of 44.8 in May. It did, however, report a modest recovery to 48.9 in preliminary June results due to early easing in gasoline prices. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 in May. Dhawan noted much of this divide is due to a lack of growth in white-collar jobs.

“That is the reason that the consumer sentiment numbers are low, because people are looking at their future firepower from the wage and income side,” Dhawan said.

Dhawan added that consumers are worried about future job prospects and whether there will be opportunities for their kids and grandkids. This is further complicated by artificial intelligence becoming more of a threat to entry-level and low-skilled jobs. He suspects corporate hiring, which has been slow as leaders invest in AI, will help determine the trajectory of consumer spending.

“The Hormuz spat, and what’s going on in Europe, and what’s going to come as … second- and third-round effects of high oil prices of the last three months could make this corporate sector, that is already a bit gun-shy, more skeptical about adding to their labor force,” Dhawan said.