Analyst: Truckload to Beat S&P 500 in 2001

December 11, 2000 9:30 AM, EST

Mathematics purists know the new millennium really starts Jan. 1, 2001, and a prominent Wall Street analyst believes that will be the beginning of a year when truckload stocks finally soar above the rubble of 1999 and 2000 left by motor carriers that just could not make it.

The prediction of a new era for truckload stocks is based, in part, on the assumption that these equities have been so thoroughly battered and bludgeoned that their prices have nowhere to go but up. Therefore, the large, well-run carriers that have survived high fuel prices, mammoth insurance rate increases and a shortage of drivers — and still remained profitable — will be rewarded in the coming year with stock prices that rise more rapidly than the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Edward M. Wolfe of Bear, Stearns & Co., and the president of the Motor Carriers Analysts Group, a collection of Wall Street stock analysts who cover motor carriers, offered this assessment Dec. 4 at the Transport Topics Management Outlook Forum.

As with many other investment firms, Bear Stearns puts together industry indexes. Its five-carrier truckload index lost almost 30% of its value from Jan. 1, 1999 to Dec. 1 of this year, dropping to 14.85 from 21.18. In contrast, the broadly based S&P 500 rose by 7% over the same time, increasing to 1,315 from 1,229.

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