U.S. crude production will soar to a record this year before rising even more in 2019, according to a government forecast published Jan. 9.
Nationwide output will average 10.85 million barrels a day next year and 10.27 million this year, both surpassing the prior record of 9.6 million pumped in 1970, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, which included the first estimates for 2019. Production will top 11 million barrels a day in November 2019.
The growth of North American shale production, which caused an estimated 5 percent increase in U.S. crude output in 2017, has rocked the oil industry in the past few years, spurring OPEC and other traditional producers to cut output to trim global inventories.
“Led by U.S. production, particularly the Permian Basin, and now new oil sands projects in Canada, non-OPEC production is forecast to continue growing through the end of 2019,” John Conti, the agency’s acting administrator, said in a statement. “We expect to see growth near 2 million barrels per day in 2018 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2019.”
WTI crude will average $55.33 a barrel this year, the EIA said, up from last month’s estimate of $52.77, and $57.43 in 2019. The global benchmark Brent is forecast to average $59.74 in 2018, up from $57.26 estimated in December, and $61.43 in 2019.
The EIA increased its estimates for global production and demand in 2018. Output is seen at 100.34 million barrels a day, up from 100.01 million previously, with demand at 100.11 million, compared with 99.96 million.