Truck Tonnage Index Hits Record after 4.4% Increase in November

This story appears in the Jan. 5 print edition of Transport Topics.

Truck tonnage climbed to another record in November, creating momentum for continued economic and freight activity growth this year.

The 4.4% increase, supported by growing activity in the retail and manufacturing sectors, pushed American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted for-hire index to 136.8.

That was a 3.5% increase on a month-to-month basis. The previous record was 132.6, which was set in August and matched in September.

“Altogether, I’m expecting tonnage to increase about the same as this year, roughly 3.5%, with a forecast range of 3% to 4%,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello told Transport Topics, adding the increase was driven by continued growth in consumer spending. With one month to go, tonnage is running 3.3% ahead of the 2013 pace, despite weather-related weakness in early 2014.

“On the positive side, I expect tonnage to be supported by accelerating consumer spending and more housing starts,” he said, propelled by factors such as lower gasoline prices that improve household finances, as well as steady job growth. “We already have seen a sharp rise in holiday spending this year due to these factors.”

ATA’s report was reinforced by mostly positive economic reports. The most far-reaching was the Commerce Department’s announcement that gross domestic product growth was revised up to 5% in the third quarter, the largest gain in 11 years. The earlier estimate was 3.9%.

Other late December reports included 1.1% higher manufacturing activity in November, the largest gain since February. Manufacturing growth was led by auto production, a trucking industry bellwether. Petroleum, coal and apparel output also rose.

Retail sales hit an eight-month high in November, rising 0.7% over October.

ATA’s not-seasonally adjusted index, measuring actual freight amounts carried, was 125.8 in November, also a 4.4% year-over-year gain. Sequentially, that November reading was 10.5% less than October’s 140.5.

The 4.4% rise over November 2013 was the second-strongest month of 2014 on a seasonally adjusted basis, trailing only 4.5% in October. The index also is on pace to top the previous quarterly record that was set in the third quarter.

Other industry observers reinforced Costello’s assessments.

“The economy has withstood a lot of bad breaks since the recession ended, but fundamentals look better now than they have in years,” said Steve Graham, vice president of market analysis for consultant FTR in a late December note to clients. “The economy was fairly good in 2014, but 2015 looks much stronger.”

“After five years of weak growth, the economy is finally coming out of rehab,” Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics research at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said in a report cited by Bloomberg News. Harris believes Federal Reserve policy only will change “in a way that only slowly and modestly tightens financial conditions.”

Analysts who follow the transportation industry also see favorable conditions ahead.

“We expect truck tonnage growth to continue into 2015 given rising U.S. import data, solid load-board activity month-to-date, and a stronger consumer [rising employment, modest income gains, and lower gas prices are inflating disposable income],” said Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Salmon in a report.

On the downside, housing starts continued to be weak in November, and orders for goods designed to last three years or more fell in that month, the Department of Commerce reported. However, nearly all of that decline in durable goods orders was tied to lower military and defense activity.

Costello also sounded some notes of caution.

“Manufacturing activity, while growing nicely, will not grow as fast as this year,” he believes, creating a minor headwind as 3.8% growth is likely to cool to 3.1% to 3.5%.

“The larger headwind for truck tonnage will be the slowdown in the growth of fracking next year due to falling oil prices,” Costello said.

That energy exploration approach, which has sparked trucking and job growth centered in Texas and North Dakota, will be hurt as lower crude prices reduce or eliminate U.S. exploration profits.

And, the world economy is a question mark.

“The U.S. economy is on an island of growth with few other inhabitants,” he said in a recent report. “For now, we will take it.”

Slower or non-existent growth in Europe and countries such as China, India and Brazil could drag down the United States in 12 to 18 months, Costello said he believes, unless conditions improve around the globe.

One factor that wasn’t a key feature in ATA’s report was ongoing uncertainty surrounding import and export shipments through West Coast ports, Costello told TT, because of the overriding manufacturing and consumer strength. The still-unresolved port negotiations that began in May have triggered cargo slowdowns reported by trucking, ocean and rail carriers.