Study: R.I. Tolls Would Only Generate Half of Revenue Projected
In a report commissioned by the trucking association on Jan. 12, consulting firm IHS projected truck tolls in Rhode Island would generate $24 million to $37.5 million, roughly half the $60 million revenue predicted by the state's economic impact study from Regional Economic Models Inc. in October.
by @PatrickAnderso_: #RI trucking group study: Tolls wld generate half of revenue projected https://t.co/8yrSdlb4cK pic.twitter.com/sRiZfUAXX9
— Providence Journal (@projo) January 12, 2016
The Raimondo administration study likely overestimated toll revenue, IHS wrote, because it overestimated truck traffic on roads where tolls are proposed and underestimated how many truckers would seek alternate routes to avoid tolls. Furthermore, IHS questioned the earlier REMI study for not examining toll-free alternative bridge-repair financing plans and for failing to provide details about the modeling methodology and assumptions used to produce its results.
"The revenue projections built into the RhodeWorks plan are not accurate and will never be realized," Rhode Island Trucking Association President Chris Maxwell said in a news release along with the IHS study.
"If the governor continues to pursue her plan she will only be proven wrong when it is too late. Once the bonds are floated and the gantries are built we will all be on the hook—including small-truck operators."
IHS projected that Rhode Island can expect to see 1.2 million to 1.5 million truck trips per year instead of the 2.4 million to 3 million projected by REMI.
Both IHS and REMI used details of a RhodeWorks proposal released last summer in their calculations, but Raimondo and General Assembly leaders are negotiating a new version of the plan. Even a set of preliminary toll gantry locations released by Raimondo last week is potentially subject to change.
IHS assumed trucks would pay between $20 to $25 to pass through the state, but no proposal for toll rates has yet been released. A version of RhodeWorks in June capped tolls at $30 to pass one-way through the state.
The new Trucking Association study comes a day after AAA of Southern New England said a survey of more than 2,200 of its members showed 55% support the RhodeWorks plan. More than 80% surveyed said the state does not spend enough money on its roads and bridges.
