Opinion: Business Seems to Be Better — And It’s About Time

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B>By Howard S. Abramson

I>Publisher and Editorial Director

For the first time in a long while, small but steady rays of optimism are beginning to peek out from behind the dark clouds that have marked the financial condition of the trucking industry and its related businesses.

I came to this conclusion after spending a good portion of March at two major industry events — the Technology & Maintenance Council winter meeting in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and the Mid-America Trucking Show in Louisville, Ky., — and talking to reporters who covered other recent events, including the Truckload Carriers Association’s annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.

What I heard were truck makers, trailer builders, parts suppliers and, yes, even advertising salespeople, all saying, albeit cautiously, that things seem to be getting better.

Don’t get me wrong. Nobody was saying that business is great or even very good. And some folks weren’t even saying that it’s getting better.

But a lot of people reported that their telephones are ringing, even if they’re not getting writer’s cramp from spending hours with their order books. Rather, these sources said they are being swamped with requests for price quotes and delivery information. And, they said, that is a bellwether of business to come.

Most people who sell equipment and services to the trucking industry well remember how they fooled themselves last year into believing that things were going to improve in the second half of the year. Things changed in the third and fourth quarters, all right. For most of us they went from bad to terrible.

As a result of that experience, we’re all pretty cautious this year. But at press conference after press briefing, and at meal after drink these past weeks, there was no mistaking the widely held belief that things really are starting to look up.

Even where there’s bad news, some well-connected people see goodness.

As we reported recently, February Class 8 truck sales fell from a year ago, and the year-ago numbers were terrible. But several people who ought to know said that the fall-off in sales this year has been lower than they expected. And they continue to believe that 2003 will end up being better than last year, and maybe by more than a little.

Even the truck makers are beginning to say they expect the second half of the year to be pretty good.

ndeed, as I was writing this, one engine maker, Detroit Diesel Corp., announced that it was recalling 200 workers in order to increase production.

The caveats one heard through the month of March centered more on fuel prices than anything else, and much of that seemed to be driven by war jitters before the hostilities began in Iraq.

Just before the real shooting started, oil prices began to fall. If that trend continues, analysts may begin to ease their pessimism over the state of the economy, since fuel has clearly been a drag on the market.

It was certainly a treat to attend trucking conferences and hear something besides gloom and doom. I think we’re all ready for better times. And I think we’ve earned it.

Transport Topics Publishing Group publishes this newspaper and the magazines Light & Medium Truck and Utility Fleet Management.

This article appears in the March 31 print edition of Transport Topics. Subscribe today.