Updated:
4/8/2008 8:30:00 AM Buy a Digital Copy of Transport Topics
OEMs Tout 2010 Engine Choices; Analyst Sees Reshaped Industry
By Frederick Kiel, Staff Reporter
This story appears in the April 7 print edition of Transport Topics. Click here to subscribe today.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — As competing engine makers continued their public battle over the best technology for meeting 2010 federal emission standards, analysts said the outcome of the competition could dramatically transform the industry.
In remarks at the Mid-America Trucking Show here, executives of Mack Trucks Inc. and Daimler Trucks North America vigorously defended their companies’ planned use of selective catalytic reduction, while a leader of International Truck and Engine Corp. touted his decision to stay away from SCR and use exhaust gas recirculation.
Meanwhile, Bruce Plaxton, president of truck consulting firm BGP Marketing Solutions, Schaumburg, Ill., said that the 2010 emissions dispute could change the industry’s landscape.
“More stuff is going on in the background than anyone realizes, and I could easily see that 2010 will lead to major consolidations in the industry.” Plaxton told Transport Topics, based on his conversations with industry leaders. “The cost to develop these engines is absolutely mind-boggling.”
Christopher Brady, president of truck
consulting firm Commercial Motor Vehicle Consulting, Manhasset, N.Y., told TT that, “unlike 2004 and 2007, 2010 will be the first time that the truck manufacturers will be offering two completely different engine technologies.”
“Fleets will be choosing on the basis of what is best for them, and that will have the potential to trigger major shifts in market shares among the OEMs,” Brady said. “If major fleets don’t feel comfortable, they can move their entire purchases to another brand. That is the real potential with this.”
Plaxton and Brady said they had no idea how the competition will play out.
“What happens in the laboratory and on the road are not necessarily the same thing,” Plaxton said. “The system that will probably win out is what is the most durable when the tire hits the road.”
Paul Vikner, vice chairman of the Mack Trucks board of directors, told reporters here March 27. “We are very much absolutely convinced that SCR is the right technology
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