Trucking Turnover Risk Rises With Freight Rebound

“When you start thinking of turnover in the scope of the cost of losing a driver, you realize the value of saving just one driver,” Dismuke said. (FreshSplash/Getty Images)

As freight demand begins to improve after a prolonged downturn, fleets may be entering a more competitive labor market with fewer drivers available and more of them willing to change jobs.

The Spring 2026 Truck Driver Survey showed a record 58.1% of drivers are looking for a new truck driving job, up from 46.8% during the same period in 2025. The survey, conducted by Conversion Interactive Agency and People. Data. Analytics., found that shifting market conditions are putting pressure on fleets to improve communication, stability and the driver experience.

Scott Dismuke, vice president of operations at PDA, said the survey shows drivers are highly mobile and that carriers cannot assume they will stay put as freight conditions improve.

“When you start thinking of turnover in the scope of the cost of losing a driver, you realize the value of saving just one driver,” Dismuke said.

PDA research estimated the cost of losing a driver at about $13,000. Dismuke also has heard from partners that recruiting costs have been rising this year. The pressure comes as the Department of Transportation moves to tighten rules on non-domiciled commercial driver licenses and English-language proficiency standards for professional drivers.

“As long as the federal government continues to enforce these policies, I think we’re going to see that the supply side of this is really driving it,” Dismuke said. “When the economy recovers, and we get out of this freight recession that we’ve been in, I do think we’re going to have massive driver churn, and we’re at the beginning of that.”

Dismuke said drivers are looking beyond pay and sign-on bonuses. They also want fair treatment, strong communication, quality equipment and respect. He warned that the pace and scale of any turnover increase will depend on federal enforcement efforts, fuel prices, seasonality, inflation and geopolitical disruptions.

“We are definitely seeing turnover start to creep up amongst fleets,” said Priscilla Peters, vice president of marketing at Conversion. “There’s clearly pressure on the driver pool just with a lot of different things that are going on, and that’s the regulatory enforcement coupled with how freight is improving, which is creating more driving jobs.”

Peters said the survey results do not necessarily mean the total number of drivers looking for work has increased, because the overall pool has become smaller. But she noted turnover tends to rise when freight markets and carrier rates improve.

“There are lots of signs that driver capacity is tightening,” Tenstreet CEO Tim Crawford said, noting that drivers on the whole appear to be acting cautiously as they wait for clearer evidence of a market recovery. “We saw a huge uptick in applications the first time there was big press about non-domiciled licenses and taking capacity out of the market.”

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Tenstreet released an analysis June 4 that found drivers are generally staying in their roles as they assess market uncertainty, prioritize human connection and adapt to artificial intelligence-driven recruiting processes. The analysis found that driver tenure has been climbing since late 2023 but also indicated there may be a pool of drivers ready to move when conditions improve.

Crawford said it will take time for changes in the market — including non-domiciled license enforcement, pressure on chameleon carriers, better freight rates and flat freight volumes — to affect how drivers make career decisions.

Crawford added that some momentum was building toward the beginning of the year before the Iran war disrupted it. He nevertheless continues to see positive indicators, including higher spot rates and some selective pay increases. He is optimistic that sustained improvement will lead to more applications, barring some kind of macroeconomic shock.

“The capacity of the freight market has gone down predominantly because of the regulatory environment,” said Luke Wachtel, senior vice president of transportation and logistics at Platform Science. “Which is not a bad thing, necessarily, by the way. That’s for the right reasons generally. But what’s a little different is that drivers are aware of that.”

Wachtel said drivers appear more aware of market conditions than they were during earlier turnover booms, such as the one that started in 2005. The trend then was driven by pay not keeping pace with inflation and a surge in construction opportunities. This time, he said, drivers are focused on overall market conditions and capacity reductions, including retirements.

“We are hearing from fleets that it’s getting more competitive amongst each other to retain or recruit drivers,” Wachtel said, adding that the driver market “has gotten more competitive, again, in part because the capacity — the pool of drivers — has gone down.”

Wachtel said creature comforts are no longer a major differentiator because they have become standard. He suggested carriers instead focus on optimizing routes to ensure drivers get enough miles and home time as well as technology that can help them.