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Maersk stock surges on higher freight rates
Disruptions in Red Sea and Hormuz have benefited the container shipping industry by tying up vessel capacity
Workers walk past containers stacked at the Tan Vu Terminal at Haiphong Port in Haiphong, Vietnam. (Linh Pham/Bloomberg)
Key Takeaways:
- Maersk shares have surged nearly 60% this year as stronger freight rates and supply chain disruptions prompted the company to raise guidance twice.
- Analysts remain divided because Red Sea disruptions boosted earnings, but many question whether elevated freight rates and current cash generation are sustainable.
- Investors are watching Maersk’s November earnings, while futures upgrades and bearish analyst targets leave room for further debate over the stock’s outlook.
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S keeps giving analysts reasons to reconsider their bearish views on its shares.
The stock has surged nearly 60% this year as a boost to freight rates from stronger demand and supply line disruptions has spurred the Danish shipping giant to upgrade its guidance twice over the summer. Maersk has also weathered concerns over fuel costs from the Middle East conflict, and the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Yet analysts broadly remain skeptical. Just one of 26 tracked by Bloomberg has a buy recommendation, with many questioning the durability of elevated freight rates and other tailwinds.
Disruptions in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz have benefited the container shipping industry by tying up vessel capacity and tipping the supply-demand balance in favor of shipowners. As carriers including Maersk resume Red Sea transits, that support is set to fade, with excess capacity seen to weigh on freight rates longer term.
HSBC Holdings Plc analyst Parash Jain currently has the lone buy rating on the stock. He acknowledges that freight rate momentum is set to cool, but he sees Maersk as being better placed than other long-haul ocean shipping peers. They include Hapag-Lloyd AG and Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.
Key to this, Jain says, is the company’s diverse business mix that includes logistics and terminal services in addition to its ocean vessel operations. These have helped cushion earnings, leaving “Maersk as the sector’s highest-quality defensive cyclical,” Jain noted in emailed comments.
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Elsewhere, Barclays Plc analysts led by Marco Limite on Sept. 14 said that the setup for Maersk’s earnings due in November is “extremely strong,” placing the stock on a positive catalyst alert.
Still, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co, led by Alexia Dogani take a more bearish medium-term view. Following the second-quarter report, which included a guidance upgrade, Dogani called the current narrative on the stock “peak bullishness” and recommended caution, reiterating a 10,000 Danish kroner ($1,543) price target — less than half of its current share price.
“We see current earnings/freight rate levels as unsustainable,” Dogani wrote in an Aug. 31 note. “This strong cash generation near term is unlikely to lead to material shareholder returns as Ocean capex will need to rise to halt its capacity share loss, experienced over the past six years.”
Betting against Maersk has been a painful trade in 2026, with the shares trading around 25% higher than the average 12-month target price among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
Short interest has also declined. According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence the number of shares out on loan, an indication of short interest, has fallen from around 20% at the beginning of the year to around 10% currently.
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“Maersk upgraded several times; perhaps somebody is asking whether it can or will happen again,” said Nordnet AB investment economist Per Hansen on why Maersk shares continue to outperform consensus expectations. He added that with analyst views being as bearish as they are, there is “ample room for the shares to run on several upgrades.”
Maersk ranks No. 7 on the Transport Topics Top 50 list of the largest global freight companies. Cosco ranks No. 11 and Hapag-Lloyd ranks No. 17.
