Recession Could Be Short, Economists Say

Although the U.S. has been officially proclaimed to be in a recession, there is some evidence that the slump might be nearing an end, news reports said.

On Monday, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research declared a recession had begun in March, the Associated Press reported. (Click here for the related story.)

The panel, made of six academic economists, said the country might have been able to avoid a full-blown recession if the terrorist attacks had not occurred.

USA Today cited economists who said that a four-week drop in initial unemployment claims, an increase in retail sales and slight rise in consumer confidence are all signs of recovery.

Also, the article said that history suggests by the time there’s enough evidence to conclude a slowdown is more than just a pause, chances are it's over or close to over.

However, the Wall Street Journal pointed out that low commodity prices are an indication that a recovery may not arrive until next summer at the earliest.

And analysts said all bets would be off if there are more terrorist attacks, AP said.

The average post-World War II recessions have lasted about 11 months. If this one is average, it would end in February. A survey found economists believe a rebound will come sometime in the first half of the year, USA Today said.

Gerald Cohen, an economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, told the AP he believes the current downturn will end by March of 2002 and be followed by an economic boom in the last six months of that year.

However, some executives in the manufacturing sector said that their companies are still struggling, and some questioned whether the U.S. is actually in a depression, USA Today reported.

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