Driver Turnover Rate Falls Below 100%

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Driver turnover at large truckload carriers fell to 90% in the fourth quarter, matching the 2012 low rate of the first quarter, American Trucking Associations said Wednesday.

Turnover at large truckload fleets with more than $30 million in annual revenue fell from an annualized 104% rate in the third quarter. The second-quarter rate was 106%.

For the full year, driver turnover averaged 98%, the highest since 2007, when the churn rate averaged 117%, ATA said.

Turnover at smaller truckload fleets fell to 76% from 94% in the previous quarter. Small-fleet turnover averaged 82% last year — the highest since the 2007 average of 90%.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello told Transport Topics the less-than-truckload turnover rate was 10% in the fourth quarter, up from 7% in the comparable 2011 period.

“As freight volumes slid a bit at the end of 2012, we saw turnover follow suit,” Costello said in a statement, adding that the drop was “just a respite from the long-term trend and driver shortage storm that’s coming when the freight economy accelerates.

“Even then, these relaxed levels are still quite high, relative to recent years,” he added.

Costello said the trucking industry is still short by 20,000 to 25,000 drivers in the truckload sector — a figure that a healthier economy will only force to grow.

“Once we see steadier, more robust economic growth, we could see an industry that is short by as many as 239,000 drivers by 2022,” he said.

“We may someday soon look back on turnover rates of just 90% as the good old days as increased demand, an aging workforce and regulatory constraints combine to push the shortage higher,” Costello added.

By Transport Topics

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